Gold And Silver Break Down: A Post-Brexit Roundtrip Triggered By Eurozone Rumors

Gold and silver may have finally topped out.

The first technical clues came after SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) reversed all its incremental gains form the post-Brexit trade. I used that event and other indicators to posit a top for gold in late July. GLD promptly bounced from that support level. A month later I reiterated the call for a top in gold. And just like the previous call for a top, GLD promptly bounced – soft economic data delivered the surprise at that time. I finally started to wonder whether GLD’s apparent resilience was the bigger story. I was compelled to state the following:

“Instead of looking for buyers to prove the bull case, I should be looking for sellers to prove the bear case”

I think sellers may have finally proved their case.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) breaks down through recent support (thick, black horizontal line). As GLD completes a roundtrip from its major post-Brexit gap up, critical support at the 200-day moving average (DMA) looms large.

SPDR Gold Shares breaks down through recent support (thick, black horizontal line). As GLD completes a roundtrip from its major post-Brexit gap up, critical support at the 200-day moving average (DMA) looms large.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) reversed all its post-Brexit gains at the end of August. The current gap down confirms the end of the post-Brexit lift. Like GLD, now the 200DMA looms large as critical support.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) reversed all its post-Brexit gains at the end of August. The current gap down confirms the end of the post-Brexit lift. Like GLD, now the 200DMA looms large as critical support.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has not yet reversed all its post-Brexit gains and a test of 200DMA support is a little further away than the imminent gold-related tests.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has not yet reversed all its post-Brexit gains and a test of 200DMA support is a little further away than the imminent gold-related tests.

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

The sellers were convincing. SPDR Gold Shares, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, iShares Silver Trust all experienced major gap downs in losing 3.5%, 9.9%, and 5.2% respectively. For GLD, the gains from the post-Brexit are essentially gone. GDX experienced that same roundtrip a little over a month ago. SLV has not quite finished its roundtrip.

Given the relationship with post-Brexit trading, it is perhaps fitting that rumors from the eurozone provided the current catalyst to complete gold’s roundtrip. The approximate explanation for the sudden and abrupt downshift rested with rumors that the European Central Bank (ECB) is ready to taper its bond purchases. The ECB’s machinery for quantitative easing (QE) has acted like soothing background music: it is now only noticeable by the threat of its imminent absence. The euro also spiked higher on the news, and the move seemingly gave the ECB rumors more credibility. I am using a 30-minute chart to make the pop clear since it came on the heels of a pressing bout of euro selling that hides the move on the daily chart. Interestingly, the momentum ended quickly.

The euro spikes higher on the prospects of the end of easy money from the ECB

The euro spikes higher on the prospects of the end of easy money from the ECB

I am very skeptical of this news, especially since the last thing the ECB needs is to give traders yet one more reason to keep propping up the euro. Yet, I am not prepared to trade on my doubts. I am content for now to watch for follow-through and further confirmation of the technical breakdowns. This is an extremely important juncture because, as I have pointed out in several related posts, the long gold and silver trades are extremely crowded. For a reminder, here are the latest charts on speculator positioning. Note the historic levels of net longs, including high open interest levels.

Gold speculators are holding net longs at a level unseen since at least 2008. The surge in gold interest has been the story of 2016.

Gold speculators are holding net longs at a level unseen since at least 2008. The surge in gold interest has been the story of 2016.

At one point during the current surge in net long positions in silver, speculators held levels almost double the previous 2008 peak levels.

At one point during the current surge in net long positions in silver, speculators held levels almost double the previous 2008 peak levels.


Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders

If speculators take further cues from the technicals, the rush for the exits will continue to grow and likely feed on itself. Note that gold speculators have been roughly holding onto recent peak levels whereas silver speculators have “quietly” backed down a bit for over two months.

Going forward, I am staying committed to my core positions in GLD and SLV per my long-term strategy. My previous calls for a top ended my complementary strategy of speculating around my core position with short-term positions in gold and gold miners. I did dabble in SLV call options as a play in combination with the September Federal Reserve meeting. My profits on that position were very fleeting. The current breakdown has ended any hope of salvaging that position.

Next up, 200DMA tests…

 

Full disclosure: long GLD, SLV, short EUR/USD

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Kyle Soto 8 years ago Member's comment

"The first technical clues came after SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)..."

Speaking of this particular fund, why is there a clause in the GLD prospectus that states GLD has no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings? Why would the organizations behind GLD forfeit this right and create this massive audit loophole? I haven't heard of a single good reason for the existence of this loophole so far. In addition to the audit loophole, GLD claims to be fully backed by physical gold bullion but yet it refuses to give retail investors the right to redeem for any of these ‘claimed’ gold bullion. I've read about and verified a number of other red flags as well:

"I remember CNBC's Bob Pisani visiting GLD's vault in a well documented segment. GLD's administration arranged this visit to disprove everyone claiming that GLD's gold did not exist. However, Mr. Pisani held up a gold bar with the following serial number - ZJ6752. This serial number did not appear on the most recent bar list during that time period. Cheviot Asset Management’s Ned Naylor-Leyland later found out that this "GLD" bar actually belonged to ETF Securities."

"Did anyone try calling the GLD hotline at (866) 320 4053 in search of numerical details on GLD's insurance? The prospectus vaguely states "The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate which does not cover the full amount of gold held in custody." When I asked about how much of the gold was insured, the representative proceeded to act as if he didn't know and said they were just the "marketing agent" for GLD. What kind of marketing agent would not know such basic information about a product they are marketing? It seems like they are deliberately hiding information from investors."

George Lipton 8 years ago Member's comment

Did you find an answer to your question? You've posted the same question over and over and over again, I do hope you get it soon.

Dr. Duru 8 years ago Contributor's comment

This question gets posted to a LOT of articles referring to GLD across multiple publications. It's almost like a crusade...