With Export Sales, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv, Initial Jobless Claims (24/Jul), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (JUL/24), GDP Price Index QoQ Adv. (Q2), PCE Prices QoQ Adv (Q2), Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv. (Q2) and Continuing Jobless Claims (17/Jul) at 7:30 A.M., pending Home Sales MoM & YoY (Jun) at 9:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs. And EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M.

Image by Free-Photos from Pixabay

On the Corn front, the weather forecast has changed again to rainy and cooler weather in the Midwest and the North and East of the Mississippi continue to be dry as a bone. Funds continue to short this market as they expect record yields in corn in the east will offset the dryness of the rest of the Corn Belt yields. I believe the funds are working on wishful thinking, especially after they took a hit being long over the 4^th of July weekend. South America’s crop is struggling, and the export market is sure to pick up, I think the funds are now playing with fire. Many bullish fundamentals including farmers holding back in the market with a weak carryover market again will be a disaster for shorts in the market as we move closer to harvest. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 550 ¾ which is 1 ¾ cent higher. The trading range has been 552 ½ to 546 ¼.

On the Ethanol front, more countries continue to push the dream in the future of net-zero to very low carbon emissions. Brazil is focused on corn-based ethanol versus the norm of sugar-based ethanol as this is another sign of bullishness to come. The next report for corn for ethanol use is Thursday, August 12^th.  There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The August contract settled at 2.320 and is currently showing no market with Open Interest at 2 contracts.

On the Crude Oil front, the inventories or lack thereof numbers were close which is a sign they are on the same page. OPEC and OPEC+ are currently showing unity heading into the next meeting next month.  Another lesson learned from 2020, don’t rock the boat. The volatility remains with the Covid variant, and the fear is what we saw is not so much this year because of the fear of the not known. We now have an education of what this pandemic can cause and know more steps to stop the spread. Demand is increasing even with headlines that a year ago would have sent shockwaves in the market. We must be cautious but OPEC and OPEC+ realize we have seen this dance before. In the overnight electronic session, the September crude oil is currently trading at 7279 which is 40 points higher. The trading range has been 7327 to 7276.

On the Natural Gas front, the September contract now is the front month and needs to close above 4.000 to get technicians on board with fundamentalists. Today’s EIA Gas Storage should shed some light on where we are going from here. The Thomson Reuters poll with 17 analysts participating expect builds ranging from 33-bcf to 52-bcf with the median injection of 42-bcf. This compares to the one-year build of 32-bcf and the five-year average of 28-bcf. In the overnight electronic session, the September contract is currently trading at 3.993 which is .026 higher. The trading range has been 4.007 to 3.927.