Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing  Index, Continuing Jobless, Jobless Claims 4-WWeek Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEC Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, and Philly Fed Prices Paid at 7:30 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 8:00 A.M., Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales MoM, and CB Leading Index MoM at 9;00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech, 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M. %-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Goolsbee Speech at 12:20 P.M., Fed Barr Speech at 12:30 P.M., Mikk Production at 2:00 P.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 3:00 P.M., Fed Harker Speech at 4:30 P.M., and Fed Logan Speech at 6:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front South American forecast is consistent in offering a need pattern shift to wetter weather in Argentina, while worrisome heat and dryness continues in all but Southern Brazil. Temperatures this week are compounding soybean seeding and germination issues. It is critical that temps moderate and regular rain develop no later than Nov. 1st. High temps Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraguay on Tuesday were recorded in the range of 101 to 106 degrees. Once again weather is in the market and could further aid US export We also have a booming rally in the energy market and whispers from those in the know remain agnostic at this point, Playing technicals selling rallies and buying breaks unless the technical numbers are violated, most likely on the next headline. A scary thought the Fed meets on Halloween and makes the rate decision on All Saint’s Day. Listening to Fed Governors they seem to be talking hawkish in these crazy times. Word will be talked on the street for the next week and a half. Getting back to the US corn market there are many bears talking bumper crop, but I’m not so sure. What % would be good-to-excellent and what % would be poor. Brownfield reports a central Missouri farmer said the extreme drought conditions were too much for his corn crop. Nathan Alpers from Cooper County tells Brownfield irrigation helped the corn make it to fall, but stalk quality wasn’t good and small ears were difficult to shell. “We had to make a few adjustments to our corn head so the ears could come through,” he says. “As far as stalk quality, there was rot and the crop did the best it could to hold on. You didn’t have to push the corn too hard before it would snap and break. Some varieties were worse than others.” He says there was aflatoxin in about 2/3’s of his corn crop. “Only the drought affected corn had it. We had some really good irrigated corn in river bottoms, which helped fill the bin but any of the corn in the hills took a toll.” Alpers says Fall harvest is nearly complete at the farm. Rain and drizzle delayed some soybean harvest over the weekend but says the soil moisture is welcome for dry soybeans. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 491 ¼ which is ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 492 ¾ to 490 ¼.

On the Ethanol Front Erin Voegele reports US fuel ethanol production was up more than 3% last week, according to yesterday’s EIA data. Stocks of fuel ethanol were down 2% and exports down 7%. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.035 million barrel per day, up 31,000 when compared to last week’s 1.004 million barrels per day, and up on the 1-year 19,000 bpd. Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol fell to 21.112 million barrels down 44,000 bpd compared to the 21.526 last week and down 732,000 on the 1-Year. Exports a fuel ethanol averaged 112,000 bpd, down 8,00 from 120,00 last week. There was no 1-year as the EIA had not begun tracking ethanol exports. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

More By This Author:

Commodities On The Move. The Corn & Ethanol Report
Commodities On The Move - The Corn & Ethanol Report
Supply & Demand - The Corn & Ethanol Report