We kicked off the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage rate, MBA Mortgage applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Building Permits Prel, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts, and Housing Starts MoM at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 11:00 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 11:30 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech and 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Beige Book at 1:00 P.m., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., Fed Harker Speech at 2:15 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Cook Speech at 5:55 P.M.

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On the Corn Front yesterday’s Industrial Production Index for September rose 0.3% from August and was up 0.8% from a year ago. This marked the 8^th straight month that the industrial production growth was less than 1%. The question for the longer-term US financial outlook is whether industrial production turns negative in the coming months or begins to recover? Given the Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation and interest rates, it’s unlikely that industrial production will expand in a high/rising interest rate environment. Every negative industrial production has led to financial recession. There has been just one instance (2015-2017) when prolonged, negative industrial growth did not lead to a recession. US industrial production is positive, and a recession is still a few quarters off. That said, it bears close attention, according to ARC. South America shows growing concern over moisture in key areas of Northern Brazil. Needed showers reach into Northern Brazil. Needed showers reach into Argentina this weekend, but extreme heat and complete dryness blanket all but Southern Brazil into Thursday. Were trading higher this morning on another surge in global crude oil prices. Cash markets are moving and flash sales and Export Intentions are growing with signs of life in exports. Weather forecast this week until next week will be good for harvesting. In the overnight electronic session the December corn the December corn is currently trading at 493 which is 4 cents higher. The trading range has been 494 to 488 ½.

On the Ethanol Front UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane association, has announced ethanol production by mills in the south-central region of Brazil was up significantly during the second half of September. Ethanol sales were also up for the month. Mills on the south-central region of Brazil processed 44.478 million metric tons of sugarcane during the second half of September, up 77% when compared to last year at this time. Total sugarcane process since the beginning of the current harvest season, which began April 1^st, reached 493 million metric tons, up 14.24% when compared to last year’s harvest at this time. Domestic sales of hydrous ethanol reached 1.65 billion liters, up 18.45% when compared to a year ago, while domestic sales of anhydrous ethanol were at 927.25 million liters, down 0.84%. Total ethanol sales since the beginning of the current harvest season reached 15.33 billion liters, up 2.73%. Sales includes 8.84 billion liters of hydrous ethanol, up 0.51%. and 649 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol, up 5.91%. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

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