We kicked off the day with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, and Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M.,15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 23:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.

Manheim Consulting’s Used Vehicle Index showed that wholesale used car prices at dealer auctions rose 2.8% in July. This was the first monthly increase since September 2023 and the largest 1-month increase since March 2023. Compared to a year ago, the index was down 4.8%, which was the smallest year-over-year decrease since October 2023. Manheim indicated much of the strength in used car prices due to a decline in the number of car lease maturities. Compared to June, SUV prices rose 2.7%, pickups were up 2.6% , and luxury vehicle prices increased by 1.6%. Used pickups were 5.3 cheaper than a year ago.

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Central US Forecast Non-Threatening Nearby;  Flooding Impacts East; Midwest Heat Returns After Aug 14^th: Extended range details remain subject to change amid tropical activity across the Southern Atlantic, but the major forecasting models are consistent in offering rains to the W Plains early next week, favorably mild temps in nearly all areas this week, but a warmer pattern beyond Aug 14^th . High temps in the 90’s resume in KS, MO, and the Southern Midwest at mid-month, but in the short run highs in the 70’s will be widespread. Decently organized rain slides across CO, KS, and W NE late this weekend. Accumulation is estimated in a range of .25-1.50”.Lttle/no rains is forecast elsewhere across the principal Corn Belt into Aug 15^th. Tropical Storm Debby is still expected to flood the Carolina’s, VA, and the Northeast with totals of 4-10” . Rainfall of 2-4” has been recorded in SC in the last 24 hours. Ag Resources (ARC) research suggest USDA will move to increase US 23/24 corn exports 25 Mil Bu in its August WASDE following stronger than expected Census exports in June and as there’s been no real seasonal downturn in physical shipments. ARC highlighted on Tuesday that official exports in June were a robust 216 Mil Bu above reported FGIS shipments during the month. FGIS data continues to undercount US corn exports, and ARC estimates official shipments in July at 2190 Bil Bu, vs. a meager 92 Mil last year. Exports of 124 Mil Bu are needed to meet the USDA’s current target. This implies weekly FGIS inspections of just 22 Mil Bu/week in August. This compares to FGIS shipments of 48 Mil Bu in the week ending Aug 1^st. 23/24 US corn stocks have been trimmed to 1,837 Mil Bu, vs. projected 1,877 Mil.

CBOT Corn Test Recent Low; Basis Weakens on Late Season Pricing; Ukrainian Fob Premiums Hit 3-Year High: CBOT corn futures extended Tuesday’s correction in part due to this week’s mild Central US temps and in part due to lack of pushback from the interior cash market. Sizable old crop pricing is suspected. Basis in Decatur, IL, has fallen $.20/Bu in the last two weeks. Other news is absent. USDA’s Aug report is awaited to determine just how big is big with respect to US production, but ARC maintains a decline in harvested area and a lack of yield growth across the S Plains & Southeast caps national yield in 2024 at 180.5 BPA. It’s also a fact that USD corn is cheap in the global feed marketplace and there’s no sign tha Brazil aims to clear inventories via competitive prices. Competition for importer demand will be down sharply from last year. Old crop will be liquidated on recoveries. A demand story lies for 24/25. The rate of La Nina development needs watching as rain is needed in Argentina prior to seeding. Wednesday’s preliminary open interest fell 8,653 contracts in Chicago wheat, and 110,207 contracts in corn, while rising 2,705 contracts in soybeans. Position squaring is expected to persist ahead of the USDA crop report on Monday.

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