Energy Speculators Bets Fall Led By WTI Crude Oil, Gasoline & Brent

By InvestMacro Research of InvestMacro

Sunday, August 14, 2022 11:00 AM EDT

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (2,396 contracts) which was the only market this week showing increasing speculator bets.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-43,101 contracts) and Gasoline (-5,312 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-1,429 contracts), Natural Gas (-446 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-33 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders

WTI Crude	1,570,131	0	210,651	0	-238,073	100	27,422	53
Corn	1,317,913	1	210,786	57	-160,654	49	-50,132	14
Natural Gas	969,582	3	-125,419	41	86,734	58	38,685	72
Sugar	765,669	12	26,065	42	-30,608	62	4,543	13
Soybeans	583,208	2	88,901	41	-62,971	65	-25,930	27
Gold	453,540	0	142,851	19	-154,554	83	11,703	1
Wheat	320,767	14	-3,426	15	9,939	74	-6,513	77
Heating Oil	283,749	29	24,464	78	-36,472	32	12,008	40
Coffee	209,446	13	30,453	65	-31,268	41	815	7
Copper	187,988	21	-28,477	22	27,700	78	777	30
Brent	175,896	21	-34,211	54	32,411	47	1,800	34
Silver	141,093	8	2,879	9	-13,574	89	10,695	21
Platinum	62,782	26	846	9	-4,055	93	3,209	7
Palladium	7,619	6	-1,970	12	2,044	86	-74	40

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (78.4 percent) remains the leader in energy market strength scores. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.1 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (53.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores and both are above 50 percent or the midpoint of their 3-year ranges. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its 3-year range. Joining WTI in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent) is Gasoline at a 17.5 percent score.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (53.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (56.2 percent)
Natural Gas (40.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (41.1 percent)
Gasoline (17.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (22.9 percent)
Heating Oil (78.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (24.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (14.2 percent) and Gasoline (13.4 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data. WTI Crude Oil (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.3 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-23.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-9.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (14.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Natural Gas (1.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (19.5 percent)
Heating Oil (24.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-17.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 210,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 253,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.5	40.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	55.7	3.2
– Net Position:	210,651	-238,073	27,422
– Gross Longs:	338,172	636,980	76,995
– Gross Shorts:	127,521	875,053	49,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	24.3	-1.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	49.9	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	31.5	2.9
– Net Position:	-34,211	32,411	1,800
– Gross Longs:	31,578	87,846	6,819
– Gross Shorts:	65,789	55,435	5,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	47.2	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-15.0	7.5

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -125,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -124,973 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	41.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	32.7	3.0
– Net Position:	-125,419	86,734	38,685
– Gross Longs:	169,972	404,077	67,512
– Gross Shorts:	295,391	317,343	28,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	58.2	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-1.3	0.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	48.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	68.8	5.7
– Net Position:	45,506	-50,254	4,748
– Gross Longs:	74,516	122,093	18,926
– Gross Shorts:	29,010	172,347	14,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	83.1	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-7.5	-37.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	52.6	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	65.5	10.2
– Net Position:	24,464	-36,472	12,008
– Gross Longs:	45,620	149,372	40,817
– Gross Shorts:	21,156	185,844	28,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	32.4	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-11.4	-21.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	74.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	55.7	0.2
– Net Position:	-12,656	12,375	281
– Gross Longs:	16,115	49,878	386
– Gross Shorts:	28,771	37,503	105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.1	40.9	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.3	20.5	-1.1

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Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...

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