Corrective Week

Such was my premium S&P 500 call made in yesterday‘s analysis, counting on a catalyst this week to get the ball rolling to the downside I don‘t see all pieces of the puzzle falling in the soft landing way – conditions are ripe for taking equities out of that rising channel they had been in all this year and quite a few weeks before.. And this concerns Bitcoin with its miners‘ plays that wouldn‘t maintain the steep ascent since end of Feb either.

It might very well be Powell‘s testimony and central banking in general coupled with still hot job market as I look for JOLTS and establishment non-farm payrolls not to disappoint that would dial back even the now baseline Jun rate cut odds, or would just rock the boat sufficiently before manufacturing activity revival coupled with still expansionary services PMI ushers in thext phase of the stock market upleg.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

S&P 500 didn‘t go up premarket, and tech led it lower. Relative resilience in KRE and XBI wasn‘t enough to save even the Russell 2000, and odds are smallcaps would catch up to the downside just when the next no landing or recessionary flavored data hit or central bank pronouncements hit. And Powell isn‘t interested in asset price inflation as that makes inflation fight tougher – this is the angle I am looking for him to play in the testimony.
 

Gold, Silver and Miners

gold, silver and miners

After a steep run, gold with silver is in for a brief pullback – and it can very much possibly happen today on rate cut odds readjustments aka not dovish, data dependent Powell. Yields have retreated too far, too fast – and the tide is ready to turn also in bonds.


More By This Author:

Rightful Caution Into Powell
Soft Landing Squeezing
Soft Landing Charm

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