Corn prices have risen over 13% since the low on August 26th, following an adjustment after the August 28th contract shift. Despite this upward movement, the long-term trend remains bearish, particularly if the recovery fails to break above the $478 resistance level.

Daily Chart Analysis:  

The current bearish trend in corn prices began in April 2022. However, the decline appears to be corrective rather than impulsive. Unless an impulsive recovery emerges, the ongoing bounce is expected to be temporary, with prices likely to turn lower. The structure from the April 2022 high resembles a double zigzag pattern at the cycle degree. The decline from $478 appears to be an impulse wave, likely forming wave (A) of Y (circled) within the cycle degree wave y. The ongoing recovery is considered wave (B) of Y (circled), and it should ideally conclude below $478 to maintain the current Elliott Wave count. Regardless, the current bounce is expected to extend higher in the short term, as supported by the H4 chart analysis.

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H4 Chart Analysis:

On the H4 chart, the recent surge in corn prices appears to be forming an impulse wave sequence, likely representing wave A of (B). Following this wave, a pullback for wave B is expected, which should then be followed by another rally to complete wave C of (B). While the short-term outlook supports a corrective bounce, the broader bearish corrective sequence remains incomplete, indicating that the long-term downward trend can return from the top of (B).

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