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Soybean Elliott Wave Analysis
 

The long-term bearish cycle for soybeans, which began in June 2022, continues to push prices lower, currently trading near a four-year low. The downtrend shows no signs of a major reversal, and investors are likely to continue selling on rallies until a definitive bottom is reached. Technically, no significant reversal signals have been identified, indicating that the bearish trend may persist.

Long-Term Perspective:

Before the June 2022 decline, soybeans completed a bullish impulse wave that started in May 2019, lifting prices from $806. However, over the past 26 months, more than two-thirds of those gains have been wiped out. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current corrective phase is developing into a three-swing pattern, a common structure in corrective waves.

Daily Chart Analysis:

On the daily chart, the corrective pattern is analyzed from the primary wave degree (circled). Wave A (circled) concluded at $1,249 in October 2023, followed by Wave B (circled), which ended at $1,398 in November 2023. Wave C (circled) is currently unfolding to the downside. Within this wave, sub-waves (1) and (2) of 5 (circled) have already been completed, and the price is now advancing in Wave (3). The price has broken below the critical $1,000 level and could potentially drop to $800 before Wave (3) completes. This movement is part of Wave 5 of (3), suggesting that the bearish phase is not yet over. In the near term, further downward pressure is anticipated.

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H4 Chart Analysis:

On the H4 chart, Wave 5 is in a temporary bounce for the 4th sub-wave, labeled as Wave iv (circled) of 5. This indicates that after this brief upward correction, soybeans are likely to resume their downward trajectory, continuing the sell-off. The broader bearish trend remains intact, with additional declines expected as the market completes its ongoing corrective phase.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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