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Copper price edged higher on Monday amid heightened concerns over supply tightness and after the relatively strong macro data from the United States, China, and other countries.

On the one hand, the long-term demand forecast remains positive. However, a stronger short-term demand outlook is needed to sustain the red metal’s uptrend. At the same time, a weaker US dollar has made the industrial metal less expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies. 

Supply/demand imbalance curbs bullish momentum

Copper has recorded strong performance in 2025, with Comex futures rallying by over 30% since the beginning of the year. Notably, the uptrend has been fueled more by supply concerns than an upbeat demand outlook. In fact, the all-time high hit in late July was largely due to disruptions in major mines as well as woes over Trump’s unorthodox tariffs. The latter triggered huge shipments to the US as traders stocked up to shield themselves from the expected taxation on refined metal. 

A few months after Trump surprised the market by exempting refined copper metal from the 50% tariff, investors’ antennas are up again, and so are the Comex copper prices. Expectations of import tariffs have fueled a surge in the flow of refined copper metal to the US. 

Notably, the increased shipments are affecting inventories in other parts of the world. For instance, copper price in London hit a fresh record high late last week at $11,210.50 a tonne. In late October, the supply stress bolstered prices at the London Metal Exchange to an all-time high of $11,200.

While the supply crisis is expected to continue bolstering copper prices, at least in the near term, the bulls need a stronger short-term demand outlook to sustain the uptrend. 

On the one hand, the robust expansion of AI data centers and decarbonization are set to bolster copper demand in the long term. However, the situation in the leading consumer and importer of the industrial metal, China, appears rather dull. A struggling property market and easing demand for consumer goods have suppressed the country’s appetite for the red metal.

Comex copper price technical analysis

(Click on image to enlarge)

Copper price chart | Source: TradingView

Copper price in the US began the new week on its front foot, extending the gains recorded late last week. This saw Comex futures rally to a level last recorded on 30th July when the prices plunged from the all-time high. At the time of writing, Comex copper price was at $5.35 a pound.

In the near term, the range between $5.19 and $5.37 is worth watching. However, as the rallying attracts more buyers, the bulls have a chance to break that resistance as they eye the next target at $5.46. 

At the same time, the current RSI of 64 points to a possible pullback as investors take out their profits; a perspective that justifies the projected range-bound trading. On the lower side, I expect Comex copper price to hold steady above the support zone of $5.09, which is along the short-term 25-day EMA.  

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