Beware Of Rising Swings

S&P 500 was predictably roiled by CPI above expectations more than by core PCE data end Feb, but even two good intraday moves weren‘t enough to break below Monday‘s lows and deliver a less shallow correction. Weren‘t it for increasing intraday volatility in Bitcoin, its stock plays (MSTR, COIN and MARA), it would be all fine and being long would have been the reasonable peace of mind proposition.

Instead, a flush such as Friday can‘t be ruled out even if the upleg is nowhere near finished, and disinflation losing steam isn‘t an issue for this earnings, fundamentals driven rally within still strongly growing economy and rich corporate and household balance sheets (see specialty retailers, or discretionaries in general) – what‘s thus tougher to capture in swing terms if you first aim for two or three dozen ES points flush, is easier to navigate in intraday terms regardless of yesterday‘s volatility, which was precisely the case.

Now with retail sales tomorrow, we‘re likely to get a new buying opportunity in the ever quicker settling dust.

That‘s how I summed it up this European morning in our channel.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

Gold, Silver and Miners

crude oil

The announced corrective consolidation in gold has started, and I see it breaking $2,150, so let‘s wait and gauge sensitivity to rising yields before rushing in long again.
 

Crude Oil

gold, silver and miners

Crude oil is ready for another move through $79 higher, and is back in the dips being bought mode – the same for copper that‘s embarking on another run off $3.88 targeting $4.


More By This Author:

SPY Getting Rolling
Fear Vs. Everything Bubble
Rising Temporary Fragility

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