S&P 500 bears finally did a good job – FRC deposits situation, fresh manufacturing, and consumer confidence worked magic. Bonds broadly agreed, and the risk-off day was characterized by precious metals resilience (cryptos did well yesterday – and are doing OK on the same banking theme today as well). Of course, any quick look at KRE or XLF shows that not even Fed tightening and balance sheet shrinking can turn around the dollar when faced with more action requirements to stabilize the still ongoing outflow of deposits.

The macro themes continue to be shrinking liquidity exacerbated by TGA situation, still declining LEIs, earnings, and job market issues closer to the beginning than the end (that‘s the case of labor), real estate respite to give, inverted yield curve and a continued discrepancy between hawkish Fed pronouncements and markets betting considerably on rate cuts later this year.

Not even the better than expected MSFT earnings and GOOGL more or less in line with the significantly downgraded expectations managed to turn around stocks more than a little aftermarket. The bears continue having the medium term advantage as E gets scrutinized with P/E consequences.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

Crude Oil

Crude oil broke through the $77.50 support as I looked for it to do early Friday – quoting the relevant premium analysis „I‘m looking for dialing back of the recent optimism in precious metals and commodities, for oil at $77.50 ultimately not holding (check that next week) while copper breaks below $4“.
 

Copper

The copper chart is short-term concerning to the real asset bulls of course – again quoting premium analysis, this time yesterday‘s one „copper moved to my low $3.90s target already. There is great potential for more risk-off moves – moves the likes of which goid does withstand best (relatively speaking).“ Now, it‘s about either holding $3.78 or going to $3.72.

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