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As we are in the throes of witnessing a truly profound shift in investor sentiment, we also witness a new Metals super cycle playing out. The first metal super cycle began in the late 1800s with the Industrial Revolution, the Second during the 1970’s and the 3rd the early 2000’s which peaked in 2010/2011 but did not end until capitulation. Better still today, we have at the very least triple metal super cycle underway. Whereby Copper, Gold and Silver have all come together to reach new ATH simultaneously. LME Silver blistered a psychological price of $70, LME Copper crushed $12,000 per tonne & Gold this month achieved $4,549.71. The drivers behind this physical asset rally somewhat defy the economic norms. Copper is a long standing pillar of measuring Global economic health, where as Gold is where Investors traditionally flee to for safe haven shelter. And Silver sees a mix of record demand from industrial uses along with investors also seeking safe haven shelter at lower cost levels to that of Gold. Gold is seeing Cont Central bank purchases, BRICS nations pushing ahead with de-dollarization programs. Gold is also soaring on the back of a multi faceted set of fears such as….. global debt, currency debasements, collapse in the faith of FIAT currencies, geopolitical risks, a hedge against inflation, a hedge against a weakening USD$, (DXY saw it’s worst annual performance in two decades). Sudden shifts in monetary policy as seen this month by BOJ. Copper and Silver have both become Tech metals. Supplying the rapidly growing AI infrastructure rollout, electrification technologies, clean energy development & EV growth.

Copper has seen a decade long loss of infrastructure spending and the mining sector has been ill equipped to handle the sudden surge in demand for Copper required for the build-out of AI hyper-scalers/data centers. Causing an explosive “supply shock” and further tightening in the market.

But what makes this a truly unusual convergence for this Metals super cycle, is historically Copper and Gold have moved in divergence, this signifies how critically fundamental this shift really is. We’re witnessing a decoupling from the historic economic cycles, and that is something major.

Another Metal also seeing record prices is Platinum (PLAT) seeing prices surpass $2300 an ounce in Dec. Tight supplies & severely inflated borrowing costs exasperating price action. PLAT is used in both the jewelry industry and the automotive sectors. However, something less talked about is the US stockpiling of PLAT (Over 600,000 Ounces) sitting across US warehouses, which is significantly larger quantities than normal. US Tariffs have caused serious disruption to Global supply chains by disrupting flows of goods & much needed commodities. This causes trade distortions & has heavily played into the Metals super-cycle rally we’re witnessing today. As many now wait for the outcome of the Section 233 Probe that could lead to tariffs on this much needed metal, but also to trade restrictions, Companies have acted swiftly to move from JIT to JIC (Just in time / Just in case), Just in case is NOT a cost efficient way to hold inventory. But Trade uncertainty has forced this transition.

Although Platinum does have some safe haven demand driven growth, primarily this is a high demand industrial metal. There is no simple way of replacing production of these metals within the US. And trade disruption and tariffs affect supply. Such processes & infrastructure take years to build out. The US produces tiny & insignificant amounts of PLAT that simply could never meet the demand. And the very same goes for Silver & Copper. The US is unable to be self sufficient in the Copper production arena until at least 2035. Production costs & labour costs in the USA are also uncompetitive with other metal producing countries. Therefore making trade reliance a necessity (At least for the coming decade). For Copper, Chile is the worlds top producer, followed by Democratic Rep of Congo & then Peru with China in No 4. America’s largest mine, Morenci in Arizona currently sees output at approx 380,000-400,000 tonnes a year. Compared to over 1.28M tonnes in Chile’s largest mine, Escondida. Whilst the underlying industries continue to see heavy growth requiring more demand for these metals, the tight supply continues, global economic growth pursues & further tariff concerns linger, the Industrial use metals markets will remain a hot commodity. At some point the Gold market will cease to converge with Copper & move back into a divergence. For now, Copper market demand is expected to grow 1 Million metric tonnes over the next decade. Forecasts by the IEA suggest a 30% shortfall in Copper by 2035.

Peak Gold – There have been no major new Gold deposits found since early 2000’s, and mining continues to slow, with existing reserves shrinking. 

Mining.com expects structural deficits could been seen as soon as 2026. China remains the world’s largest Gold producer, followed by Australia and Russia. USA & Canada follow behind the Top 3.

Both the Copper markets & Bitcoin can be perceived as risk assets, & do share some macro drivers such as, inflationary hedges, Trade wars & Tariffs, Geopolitical risks create market volatility across both assets. 

The metals super cycle is anticipated to continue through to 2030. Gold’s rally is also predicted to continue into 2030, with many Banks forecasting $10,000 a troy ounce by that time. As both US interest rates fall, & the USD weakens, it makes Gold an even more attractive asset class. We’re also witnessing a super cycling in Lithium (Li), the Rare earth spectrum, Cobalt (Co) and Nickel (Ni). Which are essential to the continued clean energy transition, electrification, renewables and EV sectors. The world is only at the beginning of unprecedented demand for these metals. With many large scale investors under exposed to these asset classes, these Investors now risk a lack of portfolio balance and exposure across some of these tangible assets in the great rotation trade taking place. Super cycles rarely stop to pause for such under exposed Investors to give them time to re-balance, or recapture missed price opportunities. Such cycles are of such Grand scale, they just keep going. 

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