Friday’s session closed with a double-distribution TPO profile, making the read somewhat tricky. Statistically, this structure suggests a higher probability of rotational behavior, with the market attempting to fill the low-volume area between the distributions, as long as price holds above the lower distribution.

The volume profile, however, tells a more constructive story. A break above the volume distribution’s value area would confirm a buying scenario. The POC, positioned relatively far above, increases the likelihood of a buyer-driven move toward 6907, while 6840 remains a key supportive level.
 

From a macro perspective, the longer-term regime continues to favor buy-the-dip behavior, although shorter-term signals have shifted toward a more neutral stance as participants await Monday’s developments for clearer directional probability. Capital flows into Bitcoin and strength in Dr. Copper support the bullish case, as does a weaker dollar and a negative pre-market VIX.

The recent 25 bps rate cut is fully priced in, and attention is already shifting to January rate-cut expectations, currently around 26.6%, which could act as a short-term pressure factor, especially when combined with recent speculation around a potential rate hike in Japan.

Overall, the current setup leans neutral to rotational, with a Santa-rally scenario still on the table. While the volume structure suggests a buying opportunity may develop, confirmation likely requires a pullback during the RTH session before higher-confidence long setups emerge.

More By This Author:

E-Mini S&P 500: Market Holds Bullish Structure As Macro Tailwinds Strengthen And Dovish Rate Outlook Supports Dip-Buying
E-Mini S&P 500: Markets Rebound Into Value As Fed Rate Cut And Treasury Purchases Reignite Risk-On Sentiment
U.S. Equities Surge Amid Fed’s Dovish Tilt And Sector Resilience