Friday’s session closed with a double-distribution TPO profile, making the read somewhat tricky. Statistically, this structure suggests a higher probability of rotational behavior, with the market attempting to fill the low-volume area between the distributions, as long as price holds above the lower distribution.
The volume profile, however, tells a more constructive story. A break above the volume distribution’s value area would confirm a buying scenario. The POC, positioned relatively far above, increases the likelihood of a buyer-driven move toward 6907, while 6840 remains a key supportive level.
From a macro perspective, the longer-term regime continues to favor buy-the-dip behavior, although shorter-term signals have shifted toward a more neutral stance as participants await Monday’s developments for clearer directional probability. Capital flows into Bitcoin and strength in Dr. Copper support the bullish case, as does a weaker dollar and a negative pre-market VIX.
The recent 25 bps rate cut is fully priced in, and attention is already shifting to January rate-cut expectations, currently around 26.6%, which could act as a short-term pressure factor, especially when combined with recent speculation around a potential rate hike in Japan.
Overall, the current setup leans neutral to rotational, with a Santa-rally scenario still on the table. While the volume structure suggests a buying opportunity may develop, confirmation likely requires a pullback during the RTH session before higher-confidence long setups emerge.
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