S&P 500 couldn‘t break 4,345 yetsterday, let alone make good progress on 4,315, and as low 4,350s were holding up before the closing bell and premarket, it became justified earlier today to consider the daily glass half full indeed. Not that I would think today‘s new home sales or Richmond manufacturing would sink the markets (temporary rebound off low 4,350s seems probable) – and the weakest link yesterday, HYG with 10y yields (TLT), have an opportunity to catch up today.

Unlike gold, which I called intraday as due for more of a decline – the daily retreat in yields has today best chance of influencing risk taking in stocks rather than make for a buying spree in real assets. Tellingly, USD remains resilient, and not yet near a top, and neither are yields.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

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4,385 held in the squeeze late yesterday, and one more of such kind today (on lower yields and oil) to take ES back above 4,365, may be ahead – depends upon XLY, XLF, XLI and IWM show of strength that must be accompanied by tech (semis weren‘t too weak yesterday).

As a precondition, 4,345 though must hold the way it did yesterday. Even in this seasonally poor week, an intraday squeeze may develop later today again.

Crude Oil

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Copper did test the lower support of $3.65 Thursday, but the rebound was of course weak, and confirmed my words about having trouble overcoming $3.75 again. The red metal belongs among the more vulnerable ones post FOMC – the momentum for slow grind lower is with the bears.

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