An August August For Gold?

 

Ah, August. In a word, the Oxford English Dictionary defines "august" as "impressive": as has historically been the month of August for Gold. Recall what we penned a week ago: "...with August on the horizon, that month has finished higher for Gold in eight of the past 11 years..."

Moreover, 'twas during August just a year ago when Gold impressively printed its All-Time High at 2089. August indeed, that August. But from the "That Was Then, This Is Now Dept.", what about this August? Shall it be another august August for Gold? Or rather a month of directionless disorganization, similar to the bedlam from one Dr. August Balls of Nice, (aka "The Great Balls", so dubbed by Inspecteur Jacques Clouseau)?

To be sure, Gold was at best disorganized throughout July, price settling yesterday (Friday) at 1817. Having opened July at 1771 and not reaching below 1766, price could not clear 1835, the month's wee 3.9% trading range being Gold's narrowest since that recorded over two years ago in May 2019.

Our take is that Gold shall record another august August. Not necessarily up to its All-Time High (2089), let alone our forecast high for this year (2401). But nonetheless, an up month in the offing. And if for no other technical reason than price's refusing to succumb to the ongoing parabolic Short trend as denoted by the rightmost red dots in this chart of Gold's weekly bars from one year ago-to-date:

"So mmb, are you already eliminating August for Gold reaching your 2401 level?"

Not absolutely ruling it out, Squire; rather, being seasonally realistic. Our sense is that Gold's best shot to accelerate upward shall occur during the September-October period when -- for everything else -- "it all goes wrong". Such timely market turmoil you and I see as justified both fundamentally and quantitatively, but to which the balance of the investing world seem out to lunch, (which is always how it is before IT suddenly happens).

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