AgMaster Report - Wednesday, Nov. 22

JAN BEANS

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Like all weather markets, Beans went up on the hot & dry forecast for N Brazil, then corrected 70 cents last week when rains were forecast for last W/E – then rallied back 60 cents this week when the rain coverage was disappointing & mkt pundits predicted a return to “hot & dry” by the end of November! Also, S Brazil has been way too wet! As well, China has been aggressively buying our beans – almost every day! And the US Dollar has plummeted 400 points since early Oct – very favorable to our exports! The stock mkt has rallied nearly to its 2023 highs – as recent economic #’s suggest no more interest rate increases this year! All of these are providing substantial tailwinds for the bean complex that has already been fortified by excellent domestic demand!


DEC CORN

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Dec Corn continues to muddle along in a sideways, congestion pattern that has confined the mkt since mid-August! Currently truly a weak sister to the resurgent bean mkt! But the mkt is $1.50 off its Summer highs & is the cheapest corn on the world mkt – especially of late with the collapse in the US Dollar! Mexico has been a steady buyer & domestic demand is very good! We feel the 15 billion bushel crop is in the mkt & that improving exports & deteriorating South American weather will eventually rally corn decisively from its harvest lows!


DEC WHT

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Dec Wht has been locked in a 60 cent range (540-600) for 2 months – in dire need of a “Bullish Narrative” to lift it out of its doldrums! Increasing estimates of Ukraine’s grain harvest, more chances for rains in the Southern plains & an improvement in Winter Wheat conditions have recently pressured the mkt – as has an improving an Australian Wht crop! Fresh exports & post-harvest bean/corn rallies would provide a welcome boost to this range-bound mkt!


DEC HOGS

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The last thing the hog mkt needed was bearish news out of China but that’s exactly what it received this week – as the Superpower announced its hog herd was “too large” due to higher sow productivity & lower consumer demand! Immediately, US hog cash & cut-outs dropped – pulling Dec Futures with it today! Already, higher US pork production & hog weights were weighing on the mkt! Together, these negatives combined to more than offset the better pork demand expected ahead for the upcoming holidays!


DEC CAT

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Last Friday’s November Cattle-On-Feed Report was a little friendly with placements up 3% (exp -5-6) but on top of the Oct COF Report’s 6% increase, definitely was validating a new trend of an expanding cattle herd – not long after setting record prices in September! Demand took a double hit – as consumers finally balked at record high prices and the seasonal preference for pork/turkey in front of the holidays took hold!


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