MAR BEAN

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On Friday 1-12-24, the USDA issued their January WASDE Report – which came in higher in most all categories – production 4,165BB (Dec-4.129), yield 50.6 (Dec-49.8) & stocks 280MB (Dec-245). However, Qtly stocks came in under 2022 at 3000 (3021). The mkt action late Friday was supportive with a 30 cent rally off the spike low at 1203 – which suggests a spike-capitulation low! The higher production & yield #’s of the 2023 crop were basically old news as the crop has been in for several months! As well, more dryness issues are popping up in N Brazil where private estimators today pegged that crop at 149mmt (USDA -157)! Also export inspections came in at 1.264mmt (lw-1.040)! The mkt is stabilizing due to exp & S/A dry

MAR CORN

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Much like the beans, the USDA raised production, yield & carry-out in corn to 15.342BB, 177.3 & 2.162mb. The mkt registered single-digit losses – now at a price level which is cheaper than South America – especially with the drop in the US Dollar in the last 2 months! This should welcome exports thru the 1^st Qtr! The supplies are ample but the mkt price has discounted this! Today, the mkt’s recovery from Friday was stymied by a higher US Dollar! Export intentions were 875,621mmt – just under last week’s 1,092! This morning Mexico purchased 124,000mt of US Corn!

MAR WHT

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The lone bright spot in the Januar WASDE was definitely wht with WW seedings reduced from 36.7ma to 34.4! And their stockpiles were pegged at 648mb under both the pre-report estimate & December!But these positives were sabotaged by the higher corn & bean prod, yield & carry-out! Today, with the winter artic storm subsiding & an elevated US $, Mar wht lost ground! Going forward, the mkt is anticipating more Chinese export demand – just like its “sister mkts” corn & beans!

FEB CAT

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The Feb Cat mkt has been supported by the brutal polar vortex that has gripped the Midwest in the past 5 days – slowing weight gain & increasing death loss! And even though relief is coming, the production for the first 3 quarters is pegged to be 5-8% under 2023! And as well, post-holiday demand is starting surface – leading today to the highest close since late November! 

FEB HOGS

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Even with the Artic cold spell brutalizing livestock in the Midwest the last 4 days, Feb Hogs did not follow their sister mkt – Feb Cat higher today – instead closing $1.00 lower off lower Chinese demand & an export-discouraging higher US Dollar! Better retail demand is needed – going forward – for the contract to extend it’s $8.00 rally – which commenced after contract lows were scored on the first Tuesday of January!

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