SEPT BEANS

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Eventually, LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES! Sept Beans have plummeted $3.00 since December (1330-1030) – and now a hot spell is due into early August – when beans are made! As well, 3 flash sales of beans & meal have been recorded last Thur & Fri! Finally, fears of a Trump Trade Embargo have subsided with the sudden withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race! Funds are holding a record short position – which would fuel substantial buying should any positive fundamentals emerge! The flash sales indicate significant export interest at the current 3 yr low levels – and it appears a large crop & yield are already dialed in!

SEPT CORN

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Hot & dry is entering the corn/bean belt into early August – igniting a short-covering rally today – helped by beans 25 cent up! Also, Mexico bought 133,000 mt of US Corn this morning! Finally, Biden exiting the Presidential Race eases concerns about potential a trade war by increasing the Dems chances! Net fund shorts are a record 343,845 contracts – & they will exit on any fundamental improving! The nearly $2.00 break since last Summer has factored in a 15.1BB crop & an 182-183 yield! Also, remember, the acres are 3 million under last year – should the yields not be as buoyant as expected! The US is very competitive on the export front with our prices under South America

SEPT WHT

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Quality issues with the EU & Russia – coupled with crop stress in the Canadian Prairies have supported Sept Wht on breaks! Robust exports of late & spillover support from corn/beans today have both helped underpin! Wht futures are $2.50 cheaper than last Summer – which is encouraging foreign trade! Last week, Egypt bought over 700,000 MT of Russian Wht – the biggest purchase in 2 years! Recent escalation in the Red Sea area has increased shipping risks for wht!

AUG CAT

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A friendly Cattle-on-Field Report issued Friday at 2 pm reported placements at 93% (exp – 97) and this report plus elevated grilling season demand into the Labor Day W/E have rallied Aug Cat into the top of its recent trading range! Slaughter & beef production were under last year & helped underpin the mkt!                                                                                                                   

AUG HOGS

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A stunning $8 upside reversal in Aug Hogs (84-92) has technically confirmed a low in the contract after a $25 plummet! Cash mkts have firmed seemingly validating the chart low & demand – helped by the glaring disparity between pork & beef in the grocery store – has consolidated the turn-around! And another 5 weeks of “grilling demand” is still ahead thru the Labor Day W/E!

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