SEPT BEANS

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The USDA Report issued last Friday at 11 am came in 700 acres under the estimate & only 2.5 MA over 2023! The Qtly Stocks were 970 mb (est – 957)! The mkt had already plummeted $1.35 since late May & was heavily oversold into the report! Crop ratings stayed at 67% gd-ex! Some pundits feel seasonal lows were scored already – with the mkt $2.50 off last season’s highs & a full growing season ahead in August! As well, global production is on the wane due to drought, frost & flooding & farmer-holding is the highest in 30 years! From current low levels, exports should increase! 

SEPT WHT

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The USDA estimated the total wht acreage at 47.2 MA (est-47.5) – well under 2023’s 49.5 MA!Qtly Stks were 702 mb (est-682)! Exports have increased markedly in the past 2 2-3 weeks & with WW harvest at 54% done, the harvest pressure is waning! Sept Wht held its lows thru the USDA Report & had a strong close yesterday! Black Sea weather woes continue to afflict the Russian Wheat Crop – underpinning the contract on any breaks!

SEPT CORN

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A bearish surprise from the USDA greeted corn producers & traders Friday morning as Corn Acres were projected at 91.4MA (exp-90.2) – albeit still 3.2MA under 2023! The mkt closed sharply lower Friday – as expected – but seems to have stabilized the last few days! There are several mitigating factors to weigh – the growing season is fully ahead of us, exports have been up 30% over last year, global production has been slipping – mostly due to drought issues in Brazil, Argentina, the Black Sea & Mexico! Farmers seem to be holding tight at these low prices – reducing available supplies to the mkt place! As we all know, corn is made in July – so record yield estimates may not hold up – & acres are down over 3 million over 2023 so big production is solely predicated on big yields!

AUG CAT

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June Cat expired at record high levels late last week – creating an overbought situation – which the mkt has partially rectified this week with a $4.00 correction! But still the uptrend seems to be intact – with lower production, higher exports & exceptional demand! A strong cash mkt has led the way higher & we continue to see this pattern into the Labor Day Holiday W/E! The Grilling Season – beef’s best demand period of the year – continues to support the contract on breaks!

AUG HOGS

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Aug hogs have been flirting with a low for several weeks now! Several $5 moves down then up – then down & up again – gives the appearance of a mkt trying to establish a low – with wild mkt swings – a telltale sign of a mkt pivot! A plus $20 plummet in a short time has created a wide disparity between pork & beef prices in the supermarket – not lost on consumers & is providing the genesis of the “mkt turn-around”! As well, exports have turned up in recent weeks!

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