Photo by American Public Power Association on Unsplash

Oil prices for Brent crude were on track for their biggest monthly increase since January 2022, while West Texas Intermediate was set for its largest monthly gain since July 2023. These gains have paused amid prospects of a chilly ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and the possibility that an attack on Iran might not occur, as the Trump administration opens the door for talks on Iran’s nuclear program. In addition, there is historic news out of Venezuela, where acting President Elsie Rodriguez signed a bill yesterday allowing private sector investment in the country. In fact, Venezuela is opening the door to privatizing many of its industries, reversing its socialist doctrine and taking steps like those China made in the late 1990s that transformed its economy and led to explosive growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is strengthening as President Trump is expected to name his nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, and oil traders are wondering when the supply glut that reporting agencies have been predicting will materialize. Perhaps low prices are creating demand that will begin to show up in the coming weeks and months. President Donald Trump announced Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed not to strike Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv for a week as the nation experiences extreme cold temperatures. During a Cabinet meeting at the White House on Thursday, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump were discussing the latest on the war in Ukraine. We will see. Reports are saying Putin broke the agreement already.

Let’s start with Venezuela the Trump administration should get huge kudos for this move to allow privatization in the Venezuelan oil sector as well as the rest of their economy as we all know it was the movement towards socialism that destroyed their economy destroyed their futures and took away the rights of their citizens it led to political prisoners and dissent it left to people leaving the country and a huge brain drain from the oil industry that it needed to really drive its economy this movement towards privatization is a huge step forward in something that trump’s critics never thought would be possible and it raises not only hopes for the Venezuelan people but for the potential growth of the entire hemisphere. The AP reports thatat the same time, the U.S. Department of Treasury officially began to ease punishing economic sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which were imposed by the first Trump administration, and expanded the ability of U.S. energy companies to operate in the South American nation.

President Trump is opening the door for a potential deal with Iran even after the regime’s violent crackdown on its own people. Widespread protests continue across Iran, with the government responding with severe repression, including reports of dissidents facing execution. Trump has maintained his stance of “maximum pressure,” making clear that credible military force remains on the table. On January 29 and 30, he issued direct warnings to Iranian leaders, demanding an end to the killing of protesters or else face significant consequences, even stating that U.S. military intervention could occur if mass executions persist.
President Trump is having a hard time gathering support from our allies for an attack on Iran as many fear that it would destabilize the region.
The President has indicated he’s open to dialogue but insists on strict conditions. On January 29, he told reporters he’s “planning on” talks with Iran, stating, “I have had, and I am planning on it.” He added that a US naval armada is en- route to the region but expressed hope it wouldn’t need to be used, saying, “We have a lot of very big, very powerful ships sailing to Iran right now, and it would be great if we didn’t have to use them.” This came amid reports of preliminary discussions showing no progress

In a January 28 post on Truth Social, Trump urged Iran to “come to the table” for a “fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” warning that time is “running out” and any future US attack would be “far worse” than the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in summer 2025. He reiterated this in media appearances, demanding Iran end enrichment, limit missiles, and abandon nuclear ambitions entirely.
The markets are also reacting to the news that President Trump may actually announce his new Federal Reserve Chairman. The announcement seemed to shake up the precious metals in an incredible risk-off sell-off; of course, after that parabolic move, it wasn’t that surprising. Fox Business reported that President Donald Trump said on Friday that he plans to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell when his term expires in May

The move comes at a turbulent moment for the Federal Reserve, as the Justice Department conducts a criminal probe into Powell, the Supreme Court weighs limits on the Fed’s independence, and the cost of living tests Trump’s economic agenda.
“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting,’ and he will never let you down. Congratulations Kevin!” If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would assume one of the most powerful positions in U.S. economic policymaking, with direct influence over interest rate decisions and the central bank’s battle against inflation.
Kevin Warsh, former governor of the Federal Reserve, will return to lead the central bank. The Federal Reserve, which sets borrowing costs and shapes inflation, wields enormous influence over Americans’ day-to-day affordability. Warsh’s potential ascension to the top spot at the Fed comes as Trump has often made Powell a lightning rod for economic criticism, with tensions between the two deteriorating over interest rate decisions and broader monetary policy. Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates, which he says could save the nation “hundreds of billions of dollars.” Powell held the benchmark rate at 4.25% to 4.5% as the Fed took a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of the president’s sweeping tariffs. While the central bank has since lowered rates, Trump’s attacks on Powell, whom he nominated in 2017, have increasingly taken on a personal tone, including the use of mocking nicknames

Powell, widely viewed as one of the most crisis-tested Federal Reserve chairs in modern U.S. history, built his career as a lawyer and investment banker in New York before entering public service in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. He joined the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors in 2012 and was tapped to lead the central bank in 2017. Warsh has remained a consistent critic of Fed leadership, sharpening his attacks as he emerged as a contender to replace Powell. Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley banker, became the youngest person to serve on the Fed board in 2006 according to Fox Business.
When considering all these macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, it’s clear that oil prices have been holding up remarkably well, even after the recent rebound and impressive rally from earlier lows. The market remains in a fairly tight trading range, which is positive for the economy and bullish for demand. Currently, the market is not oversupplied; rather, it is well balanced, and with additional supplies coming from Venezuela, this stability should persist. This environment is highly beneficial, and while there are opportunities for profitable trades within this range, we do not anticipate any major upside breakout—even in the event of an attack on Iran. We are confident that the Trump administration can maintain the openness of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, natural gas prices continue to be supported by weather conditions. resident Donald Trump announced Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed not to strike Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv for a week as the nation experiences extreme cold temperatures.
During a Cabinet meeting at the White House on Thursday, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump were discussing the latest on the war in Ukraine.
That’s when President Trump says he “personally asked” Putin.

Fox Weather is reporting that as much of the Northeast digs out from the biggest snowstorm in half a decade, New York, Philadelphia, and Boston could all be on track to see another major system on its heels. That could flip gas again Marketwatch reported that Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimates the storm, called Fern, could chop 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points from gross domestic product in the first quarter. GDP is the official scorecard of the economy. Morgan Stanley based its estimate on the damage caused to the economy in 2021 due to a similarly severe storm called Viola.
“Viola caused significant damage in the South, with extended disruptions to the power grid in Texas. News reports suggest that winter storm Fern won’t be as disruptive, partly because the region is now better prepared,” U.S. economist Aditya Bhave of Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients. “But Fern has resulted in a lot more snowfall in the Northeast, which has a larger concentration of higher-income households,” he added. “So it isn’t clear whether Fern will cause more or less economic damage than Viola. “At the higher end of the forecast, Fern could wipe out much of expected GDP growth in the first quarter. The U.S. economy has expanded by an average annual rate of 2.4% a quarter over the last four years. First-quarter GDP has also been somewhat weaker than usual the past few years, and another negative
It’s these type of situations in the market that we believe that you need to be hedged for during this cold blast we hope that you stay warm make sure you download the fox weather app to keep up with the latest on this historic storm and stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they’re the only network in America that is truly invested in you.

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