Among the reasons given for yesterday's "hawkish hold" at the FOMC meeting was that employment readings "remain strong". This morning's release of weekly jobless claims backed that up. Seasonally adjusted initial claims have begun to fall back down towards recent lows in the past few months, and today's print brought it to a new short-term low of 201K. That compares to expectations for an increase of 4K up to 225K. The recent decline brings claims down to the lowest level since January and just 21K above the multi-decade low reached almost exactly one year ago.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims are also very healthy. Claims were little changed week over week, remaining near the annual low.  Relative to the comparable week of the year in years past, the most recent reading is above that of last year, but right in line with levels from 2018 and 2019. Entering Q4, jobless claims will begin to face some seasonal headwinds and will likely head higher through the end of the year.

As for continuing jobless claims, recent trends have been much calmer as they have not seen any sort of dramatic swing lower. That's not to say, however, that continuing claims have not improved. The reading has continued to trend lower and at 1.662 million it is at the lowest level since January.

More By This Author: