Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 125,500.
• Add a stop-loss at 120,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 120,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 125,500.
   

(Click on image to enlarge)

Bitcoin price held steady above the important support level at $120,000, down from the year-to-date high of 126,260. BTC/USD remains about 13% above the lowest point in October this year.

Bitcoin has been in a relentless bull run this year as investors continued accumulating its exchange-traded funds (ETF). Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that the cumulative net inflows into ETFs have jumped by over $2 billion this week.

This increase has brought the netflow to over $62 billion, bringing the total amount held by these funds to over $164 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT is nearing the $100 billion asset level, while other funds by companies like Fidelity, Grayscale, and Ark Invest have had robust inflows in the past few months.

Investors have turned to Bitcoin because it has solidified its role as an important safe-haven asset. Its performance has also mirrored the performance of gold, which has now jumped to over $4,000 this year. Gold has jumped by over 50% this year.

The main market risk recently has been the US government shutdown, which is now in its second week. This shutdown has led to a data drought as the main statistics agency have remained shut.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not publish its jobs numbers on Friday. If it continues, it means that the agency will not release the latest consumer inflation data next week. That my push the Fed to deliver its interest rate decision blindly later this month.
 

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair soared to a record high this week and then pulled back to the current 123,350. It remains below the important support level at 124,513, the highest swing on August 14.

The pair remains above all moving averages and slightly below the ultimate resistance level at 125,000. Also, the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have all pointed upwards.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the ultimate resistance followed by the overshoot point at 128,125. A drop below the support at 120,000 will invalidate the bullish forecast.

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