My previous BTC/USD signal on 1^st August produced a profitable long trade entry from the bullish bounce at the key support level of $62,349.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75% per trade.
• Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $60,445, $59,401, or $58,145.
• Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $62,349, $63,153, or $63,613.
• Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC analysis on 1^st August that Bitcoin was looking weak, but might be held up at the support level of $63,613. In fact, this level did not hold.

The technical picture is a bit strange: over the past two and a half months, we have seen a bearish trend, but with wide swings on both sides which are almost equally impulsive. This makes the trend very hard to call.

Over the shorter-term the price is moving higher. The price has printed a clear sequence of higher lows and higher support levels but has now reach an area which was formerly consolidative.

There has been speculation that as former President Trump publicly adopted a more positive policy on crypto, this would boost the price of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, over recent days his opponent Vice President Kamala Harris has opened a small but significant lead in opinion polls, and this may have some chilling effect on further price rises.

I think the best strategy here is to assume bullishness if the price remains above the nearest support level at $60,445, and to enter a new long trade if we see a bullish bounce when that level is first touched.

If the price rises to get established above the nearest resistance level at $62,349 that will be a more bullish sign.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time.

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