Potential signal:

• I am a buyer of BTC at 117,000 with a stop at 115,000 and a target 0f 119,900.
   

(Click on image to enlarge)

Bitcoin initially rallied during the trading session on Friday but pulled back to show signs of hesitation. In fact, it looks like the $116,000 level is a major barrier, and if we can break above that level, then it has to deal with the $117,000 level, which is resistance as well. Ultimately, the pair has rallied quite nicely, and now it looks as if it might be a little bit overextended at the moment.
 

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is a bit overextended, so the fact that we are struggling doesn’t surprise me too much. Ultimately, on this pullback I would anticipate that we probably get some type of buying pressure underneath, perhaps at the 50 Day EMA which is currently at the $113,133 level. If we break down below there, then the $110,000 level might come into the picture as well. This of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, it will attract a lot of attention in and of itself. This of course is on top of the fact that it has already offered both support and resistance, so it brings market memory into the picture also.
 

Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates, and that can help the idea of bitcoin going higher as it is “easy money” policy, and that of course is exactly why Bitcoin ended up being invented. Whether or not that actually plays out remains to be seen, because there’s also the argument to be made that if the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates, perhaps the economy is in much worse shape than we thought, and that might put a little bit of a beating on risk appetite.

Nonetheless, this is not a market that I have any interest in trying to short, and I do think that if we even do drop from here, then it just ends up being a nice buying opportunity at lower levels. On the other hand, if we can take out the $117,000 level to the upside, then it opens up a move to the $120,000 level yet again.

More By This Author: