The Australian dollar has finally broken below the support level that we have been watching for a few days now. With rates in America looking to go higher again, and an RBA that might have to pause, this pair looks vulnerable.
AUD/USD
The Aussie dollar has fallen through pretty significant support during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like the bottom has finally given out.
At this point in time, you can make an argument for continued downward pressure, maybe based on the idea of interest rate differentials shifting toward America, or the fact that the RBA, which was once very hawkish, suddenly does not have that kind of tone to it. With this, I think you have to look at this as a market that has a bit of a correction ahead of it.
Charts look rough for the Aussie
When I look at the charts, I can make an argument for 0.67 being targeted, possibly even lower than that. The interest rate differential is shrinking. Real rates of return in the United States bond markets are helping the U.S. dollar, and of course, there is just the risk premium out there. There are so many different moving pieces at the moment that it is difficult to imagine that people want to take massive risk with a commodity currency.
That being said, commodity markets are falling apart, and that is probably a culprit here as well. One only has to look at the gold market today, and to a lesser extent the silver market, to see exactly how that could influence things.
Either way, I think we have further to go to the downside. Short-term rallies will get sold into, and I do not believe in the Australian dollar until we get well above the 0.69 level, something that does not look very likely, at least not in the short term.
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