Rocky entry to 2023 in stocks, but the bullish case for a Jan top isn‘t lost in the least. And it would be accompanied by a retreat in bond yields, with risk-taking stretching to badly beaten and temporarily rebounding tech in what‘s to turn out still as a period of Nasdaq underperformance.

Jan is to bring up strong real assets performance, and it‘s silver with gold and miners leading, copper in between, and crude oil too weak in spite of China covid policies update bearing upon economic activity projections positively.

The key message from slowing inflation data even in Europe, and the recent slew of housing, manufacturing, and soon-to-be joined-by retail sales, is that recession is practically knocking on the door, and that soft landing had become even more of a tail risk than it used to be. Have a look at M2 growth figures or continued yield curve inversion, not really consistent with an expanding economy. And that‘s precisely what Treasury yields are telling us now.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action – today long) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
 

Gold, Silver, and Miners

As I wrote in yesterday‘s premium analysis, PMs will be a star outperformer in 2023 – we‘re going up, and silver will lead the charge ($30+ target once the squeeze gets serious, we‘re nowhere there yet). Neither miners nor platinum is asleep at the wheel.
 

Crude Oil

Crude oil is thus far a 2023 disappointment, reflecting the coming hard landing recognition. I‘m though not writing it off – China is coming back and OPEC+ is ready to defend prices. $74 should hold on a closing basis near term.

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