Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 23, 2025.

10-year note: Currently net short 844.1k, up 24.8k.

The 10-year treasury yield has approached a crucial spot. It finished up five basis points this week to 4.19 percent, with Thursday tagging 4.2 percent. Earlier on the 17^th, it bottomed at 3.99 percent. Most recently, on 18 August, rates reversed lower after kissing the 50-day moving average (now 4.23 percent) at 4.35 percent; this was one of the several lower highs after the 10-year peaked in October 2023 at five percent.

Going back more than two decades, bond bulls and bears have persistently locked horns at 4.2s, which now also approximate trendline resistance from January when the 10-year hit 4.81 percent and headed lower.

On the weekly, there is plenty of room for rates to continue higher, but bond bulls (on price; yield and price maintain an inverse relationship, meaning bulls would benefit if rates go lower) are likely to get active in the near term as the 10-year is getting extended on the daily, not to mention the fact that the falling 50-day is nearby. In this scenario, non-commercials who are sitting on tons of net shorts in 10-year note futures, and who added this week, might end up helping the bulls if they decide to reduce exposure, at least near term.

30-year bond: Currently net short 78.8k, down 15.3k.

Major US economic releases for next week are as follows.

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index (July) and job openings (JOLTs, August) are due out Tuesday.

Nationally, home prices in June rose 1.9 percent from a year ago. This was the smallest annual price appreciation in 23 months.

Non-farm job openings in July declined 176,000 month-over-month to 7.18 million, near last September’s 45-month low of 7.10 million.

Wednesday brings the ISM manufacturing index (September). Manufacturing activity in August increased seven-tenths of a percentage point m/m to 48.7 percent. This was the sixth consecutive month of sub-50 activity. Before that, a two-month expansion in January and February was preceded by 26 months of contraction.

Durable goods orders (August, revision) are scheduled for Thursday. Preliminarily, August orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capex plans – rose 0.6 percent m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $76.7 billion. The series peaked three years ago at $78.1 billion.

Payrolls (September) and the ISM services index (September) will be reported Friday.

In August, merely 22,000 non-farm jobs were added, for a monthly average since May of 27,000, including a loss of 13,000 in June. In the first eight months this year, an average 75,000 has been added. This compares with a monthly average of 168,000 in 2024 and 216,000 in 2023.

In August, non-manufacturing activity increased 1.9 percentage points m/m to 52 percent – a six-month high.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 146.7k, up 7.4k.

Throughout September, and once in August, oil bulls actively defended $61-$62. This continued Monday as West Texas Intermediate crude ticked $61.68 intraday, which also approximated the daily lower Bollinger band. By the end of the week, the crude closed at $65.19/barrel, up 4.5 percent for the week, although bulls were unable to hang on to Friday’s high of $66.42.

At $65-$66 lies crucial horizontal support-turned-resistance. Just above rests the 200-day at $66.86. Once this hurdle yields, mid- to long-term, bulls probably have their eyes fixated on $76, which is where trendline resistance from September 2023 lies.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to September 19^th increased 19,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.501 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6^th last year. Crude imports rose as well, up 803,000 b/d to 6.5 mb/d. Stocks of crude, gasoline, and distillates all fell, respectively down 607,000 barrels, 1.1 million barrels and 1.7 million barrels to 414.8 million barrels, 216.6 million barrels and 123 million barrels. Refinery utilization declined three-tenths of a percentage point to 93 percent.

E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 172.5k, down 52.5k.

It was a volatile week, with a fresh intraday high of 6700 ticked on Tuesday and a low of 6569 tagged on Thursday. In the end, the S&P 500 closed the week at 6644, down 0.3 percent for the week. This was the first down week in four – and 2^nd in eight – with a weekly spinning top. In the prior 12 weeks, there have been several other indecision candles – from a couple of dojis to a hanging man to a bearish engulfing candle – but none of them were confirmed.

On 7 April, the large cap index bottomed at 4835, translating to gains of over 38 percent over the subsequent five-and-a-half months. Fatigue is natural, but at the same time equity bears have failed to capitalize on it, even as the bulls continue to defend shorter-term moving averages.

In the event of downward pressure in the sessions ahead, nearest support lies at 6530s, followed by 6480s.

Euro: Currently net long 114.3k, down 3.4k.

After last week’s massive weekly shooting star, the euro gave back 0.4 percent this week to $1.17, forming a weekly spinning top.

Last week, the currency failed at the July high; on Wednesday, the FOMC day, the currency rallied as high as $1.1919 but only to reverse hard. Earlier, on 1 July, the euro peaked at $1.183, having bottomed earlier at $1.02s in January.

All signs are pointing to imminent downward pressure in the weeks to come. For that, euro bears will first need to recapture $1.16, which by the way was defended Thursday at $1.1617.

Gold: Currently net long 266.7k, up 339.

Gold has essentially gone parabolic since it achieved a symmetrical triangle breakout five weeks ago. That breakout occurred at $3,400. This week, the metal added 1.9 percent to $3,754/ounce, with a fresh intraday high of $3,791 posted on Tuesday. It has now rallied for six straight weeks. Last December, the metal tagged $2,596.

Not surprisingly, the yellow metal remains overbought on several metrics. The daily RSI has been north of 70 for nearly all of September, even as the weekly RSI finds itself in the mid-70s.

Even if the metal comes under pressure in the sessions ahead, gold bugs will have an opportunity to buy the weakness at $3,620s, followed by the April high of $3,500.

Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 23.4k, up 5.6k.

Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI entered a partnership under which the latter will deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, even as the chipmaker will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. This kind of reminds us of the practice of vendor financing during the late 1990s, when the likes of Cisco (CSCO) lent money to their telecom customers so they could purchase their equipment; this gave the illusion of growth and contributed to the eventual bursting of the infamous tech and telecom bubble. Tech bulls have come out in defense of the Nvidia-OpenAI deal saying the AI buildout has just begun and that years of growth runway lie ahead. They may be right, but it is also worth pondering that until not too long ago NVDA supposedly was unable to supply as much as its customers wanted, now it is having to finance a customer.

The Nasdaq 100 gave back 0.5 percent for the week to 24504, although NVDA with a market cap of $4.3 trillion still added 0.9 percent. Like the S&P 500, a weekly spinning top developed on the Nasdaq 100 this week. And like the S&P 500, several such candles, ranging from a weekly doji to a bearish engulfing candle to a spinning top to a hanging man to a gravestone doji, formed on the tech-heavy index in the prior 11 weeks.

If tech bears this time around succeed in capitalizing on this week’s candle, then there is decent support at 23600s, which is in line with the 50-day at 23659.

Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 52k, down 33.8k.

Going into the week, small-cap bulls were riding high, just having emulated their large-cap peers in reaching new all-time highs. Last Friday, the Russell 2000 ticked 2472 intraday, barely surpassing the prior high of 2466 posted last November and 2459 before that in November 2021.

Early this week, the small cap index kept on gaining; by Tuesday, a new intraday high of 2489 was recorded, but the session reversed hard to end with a red shooting star. By the end of the week, the index shed 0.6 percent to 2434.

Small-cap bulls have spent a lot of buying power the past five-and-a-half months when the Russell 2000 bottomed at 1733 on 9 April. The risk of a triple top is always there, and this week’s action does not diminish those fears.

US Dollar Index: Currently net short 10.3k, down 2.6k.

The US dollar index rallied 0.6 percent this week to 98.18. This comes on the heels of last week’s dragonfly doji on the weekly, with an intraday low of 96.22 on the 17^th successfully testing the July 1^st low of 96.38. Earlier in January, the index peaked at 110.18 and reversed lower.

This is as good a sign as any that the index is in the process of bottoming – duration and magnitude notwithstanding.

Besides the July low, there also was important trendline support around 97 which goes back to the lows of April and May of 2011. There was near-term resistance at 97.60s and that has been taken care of. Dollar bulls in due course could be eyeing 100-101, which was breached in April.

VIX: Currently net short 101.2k, down 496.

It was one of those weeks when both VIX and the S&P 500 went hand in hand. For the week, the volatility index gave back 0.16 points to 15.29, having rallied as high as 17.74 on Thursday.

The 50-day was recaptured and lost again. Once again, the daily Bollinger bands are narrowing; when this happens, a sharp move could follow. As long as volatility bulls defend 14.50s-14.70s, which they have done since early this year, the risk of VIX dropping to the 12 and 13 handles is low right here and now.

Thanks for reading!

More By This Author:

After Finally Rallying To New Highs Last Fri, Unclear Yet If Russell 2000 Is Headed For Massive Breakout Or Triple Top
What We Can Learn From This Week's CoT Report
Valuation Metrics At/Near Records No Timing Tools But Do Reflect Excesses That Are Accumulating