That CPI Spike

S&P 500 showed promising intraday performance, but the posture somewhat deteriorated before the close as evaporating risk-on posture in bonds got into the spotlight. The ground is being prepared for as positive a CPI figure as possible, and the following three tweet thread neatly sums up my expectations going into the announcement.

Of course, I‘ll be covering the market moves in real-time on Twitter!

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

4,093 followed by 4,128 have turned into supports, and the bulls can be relied on to reach over 4,187 today. All that’s required is a not-too-hot CPI figure, which is virtually guaranteed. The following question is where and how the buying spree stops as I don’t look for it to be confirmed in bonds or currencies.

Credit Markets


Bonds aren’t firm about rallying, and stocks can’t do without their support. The short end of the curve is back rising (2-y yield) and has yet to take its toll on stocks – fuelled by deteriorating earnings and a worsening job market.

More By This Author:

CPI Game Plan
The Flip
Breaking The Range

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