S&P 500 moved sideways to slightly higher after closing the bearish gap thanks to the weekend‘s attack in Jordan – upping the stakes is still the Mideast theme as neither side is backing down. While oil had its run (called many days ago) well underway and ripe for cooling off, gold (with silver) had been turning slowly up following Friday‘s lackluster session as per calls made in my premium gold & oil Telegram channel. And given where we‘re with yields (weren‘t that far off 3.60% mark called for the end Dec 2023) and on the way to finishing 2024 below 4% or even 3.75%, the current trend of disinflation and soft landing narratives getting adequate support from incoming data, is still on.

Meanwhile, the SMCI earnings did result in upside NDX and ES move predicted (bringing more very short-term goodies in our channel), and today‘s JOLTS report is unlikely to upset the apple cart (Treasury funding requirements are slowly moving into the spotlight with FOMC tomorrow). Late yesterday‘s comments follow:

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

Credit Markets

Yields are starting to relent in the pressure, and that‘s obviously a good sign for risk taking in general. Part of the move is surely safe haven flight even if the dollar moves in a tame way, more of that yields decline is thanks to recent batch of earnings where I am not looking for especially MSFT, then GOOG or AMD disappointment.
 

Gold, Silver, and Miners

I have been leaning toward the gold optimistic way with reason, and the slow grind higher in precious metals continues – both SIL and GDX are improving alike. Rush to safety on upcoming Mideast developments would be only a cherry on the cake.

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