S&P 500 defended 4,515 and 4,507 alike and ignored hawkish Barkin's talk. Surging through 4,535, and ultimately reaching my intraday channel target of 4,565 meant more gains for intraday and swing trading clients alike – just when market breadth improved noticeably again.

This leads to the valid question of how far away is the top – is the Q4 rally slowly getting over, and if not then what would be the shape of the upcoming correction?

Today‘s full analysis answers these questions while illustrating the short-term with NVDA chart, predicting earnings market reaction.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

Stocks and Sectors

The market isn‘t expecting a downside NVDA surprise, and is actually priced for a muted reaction that would be neither as bullish as May earnings, nor as bearish as Aug ones – in between rather as the grind higher won‘t be disrupted much really.
 

Credit Markets

Credit markets also continue favoring bonds going up some more – I‘ve been telling you about a turn in rates (TLT) later this year. The daily HYG weaker close though hints at a brief consolidation in stocks.
 

Gold, Silver, and Miners

Precious metals continue being bullish – yesterday‘s daily candle bodes well for such upswing continuation that would take out $2,000 with ease. The decline in silver isn‘t likewise to be feared – see base metals and how well copper is doing too. More to come – I‘m not warning about a daily downswing.

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