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Gianni just flagged a critical divergence that could determine whether this rally has legs or is running on fumes.

The S&P 500 continuous contract just hit a new all time high. The cash index is on the verge of its highest daily close in history. 

Yet the NASDAQ has not made a new all time high since the end of October.

That disconnect tells you something important about where we are in this cycle.

When the industrials are hitting new highs but the NASDAQ is lagging, it signals that the time to play defense is approaching. Gianni put it this way: we are on fourth down and going for it. The offense might convert, but the defense is on the sideline waiting to get put in.

There are some bright spots keeping the bulls in the game:

• NVIDIA NVDA rallied 2.5% today and remains a market moving stock that Gianni has been long for a couple of weeks
• Micron's MU post earnings gap last Thursday essentially saved the rally by shifting sentiment back toward tech
• Consumer discretionary was last week's top performing sector with names like Victoria's Secret, Gap, Kohl's, and American Eagle hitting multi year highs

That last point raises an important question. Why would the market direct so much money into consumer discretionary if the consumer was about to weaken? Gianni's answer: things are actually about to improve, not deteriorate.

The setup for 2026 is taking shape. Gianni sees gold potentially reaching $5,000 and silver hitting $80 to $82 per ounce. He expects crypto to have a strong year after underperforming in 2025, especially if a 10 to 15% stock market pullback increases liquidity.

But the immediate signal to watch is whether the NASDAQ can close at the highs of the week and reassume leadership for more than just a day or two. If it breaks to new all time highs, the rally extends into January. If it fails, get ready for volatility in the first quarter.

Video Length: 00:11:50

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