Market Briefing For Monday, October 16

Efforts at a 3rd upward week in a row for S&P, belie the undercurrents we all know about, and which assisted sufficient negativity to help the rebound, that very nicely came off the 4200 level of the preceding A-B-C decline.

Now we're into resistance which can resume more oscillations, dependent to a great degree on Oil prices, and how not just the Fed, but market, reacts to expansion of war. That expansion is probable, and let's face it, major crisis.

Market X-ray: Military weekend, as the Israel-Hamas war intensifies (both in Gaza and around Southern Lebanon), in what remains already-fraught and deadly geopolitical tension (in Europe too; which prompted an unusual direct quote about EU migration from former Sec'y. of State Kissinger about Berlin).

Are we preoccupied by the War; absolutely. Should we be? Absolutely. There is a direct and indirect correlation between maintain the world's harmony and whether or not decent people condemn terrorism, whether they support what's called a 'free Palestine', two-state solution or something else.

Meanwhile surging yields might reflect the higher costs envisioned in securing 'borrowed' funds to enable the war effort. Time for World War 2-style bonds? I think not; but the world tensions continue shaping up a bit like the 1930's.

The challenge for next week will be S&P holding this range between roughly 4250-4400. That's fairly broad, but has to be considering we had a bounce as well as a 'war'; so some flexibility as far as a trading range seems reasonable.

Meanwhile we'll get a House Speaker elected, or some sort of CR (Continuing Resolution) so that a sort of bipartisan bill can be passed enabling funding for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan; apparently all bundled in sort of omnibus fashion.

The stock market is a difficult picture in a normally choppy seasonal pattern. It is often oscillating with accumulation for the year-ahead, and tax-selling from a year nearly behind. The higher Oil portends lower discretionary spending in most segments of society, and higher rates (possibly also related to the global situation indirectly) add a variable interpretation of 'return to normalization'.

That would yield a range of interest rates around here (half point variations in the fullness of time); while confusion reigns with so many things changes for a combination of business and consumer, by going from 'free money' to rates at the highest in 20 years. That alone, without geopolitics, creates disturbances.

I mean disturbance in daily life (like car payments for most); and weird levels of valuation for many stocks. On top of that, equities are in a sea of bifurcation that also means many stocks are 'pre-crashed' over the last 18 months; rather than vulnerable like the mega-caps that still are at extended relative levels.

A best case scenario now is patience for the already beleaguered (those that you believe will financially surprise this unusual period); not chasing the pricey and realizing this can persist just seasonally awhile longer; with anticipation in relation to the military crisis only now (and which 'may' involved the U.S. more in the near future) of course variable.

Bottom line: warmer inflation, firmer rates, and higher Oil combined with this extraordinary military weekend to keep various markets appropriately jittery. I would say it's impossible to anticipate next week's action pending at least the Sunday night futures response to 'whatever' happens between now and then.

Uncertainties are ramped-up for the moment; hence if there's a bullish case at the moment, it might be the 'relative' safety of money in U.S. financial assets. I would not be enthused and gird for potential renewed volatility; but not much of a shift in strategy, which is gradual accumulation of under-valued stocks for next year, when in sharp downward phases, not into or after rebounds.