SPX futures have risen to 6337.90 in the overnight session, then settled back in a consolidation. The Monday high at 6336.08 remains the all-time high. Speculation is rife, with 70% of trading volume in call options. Snake charmers have a better chance of survival than most speculators at this point.  The Cycles Model is at its tipping point. A decline beneath yesterday’s low at 6281.71 may bring a reversal/sell signal. The next levels of support lie at 6200.00, then at 6135.00 . The most commonly used sell signal lies beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 6039.03, nearly 5% beneath the peak.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6315.00. Long gamma becomes an issue above 6325.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 6300.00. This market may  be susceptible to explosive moves in either direction.
 

VIX futures declined to 15.94, testing the “floor.” This is not a time to kick back and go to the beach. The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may break out above the 50-day Moving Average at 18.24 and the declining wedge formation near 19.00 by the weekend.
 

TNX futures declined to 43.54, challenging the 200-day Moving Average at 43.67. It has since risen above it and may challenge the 50-day Moving Average at 44.09. Should it rise above the 50-day, a buy signal (sell signal for UST) may be made. This may launch a powerful rally lasting to the end of September in TNX. The betting in the market is that Powell may make an early exit, with rates falling 100 bps or more by December.  That may be wishful thinking.

More By This Author: