SPX futures are consolidating in a very narrow range, between 6299.00 and 6315.00. The buyback window is opening again, suggesting corporate buyers may be returning. Retail flows are strong. However, they are showing a propensity toward 0DTE options, with retail behavior becoming more and more speculative. This is a sign of an aging bull market, with investors increasingly using leverage to boost potential returns…and potential losses. Meanwhile, hedge funds are becoming increasingly bearish.

The Cycles Model remains calm, on day 277 of the Master Cycle. The rising trendline is at 6270.00 – 6275.00.  A potential sell signal lies beneath it. However, only a few analysts will not recognize it until the SPX declines beneath 6200.00.  Most analysts are likely to view the 50-day Moving Average at 6025.51 as the focal point of a potential sell signal. Meanwhile, the speculative mania may continue until serious losses set in.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6315.00. Long gamma may begin above 6350.00 while short gamma may exist beneath 6250.00.

VIX futures rose to 17.00 this morning. Overhead resistance is at 18.17 – 18.50. The VIX-on-the-floor is supportive of equities for the time being. However, volatility picks up at the end of the week and accelerates into mid-August.

The July 23 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00. Short gamma resides between 14.00 and 16.00. Long gamma resides between 19.00 and 30.00.

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