While expecting undershoot with good reason, NFPs came in strong, and S&P 500 took off – that‘s when being adaptive and fast, wins – check the below tweet. Stocks and more than a few sectors are now above the 90-day tariff pause euphoric highs, and that‘s a pretty important technical development given Thursday‘s upswing rejection and heavy selling into the close.

In extensive weekend video, I discussed how we as traders and investors can approach such a setup – if deemed as high confidence one (i.e. worthy of positioning for the market reaction as that‘s what counts relative to expectations), taking a position with reasonably tight stop-loss (accounting for volatility, ATR), and if the data turn out the other way, assessing whether it makes sense to switch direction and go long (having patiently waited for pullback as risk-reward ratio rules – that‘s exactly what we all did).

This allows for outsized wins at the expense of win rate – this is the kind of winning long capturing the tariff delay announcement jubilation right from the start. The average trade metric can thus improve.

So, there is a daily respite in the long string of negative economic surprises, this translation of poor soft data into poor hard data that I talked over a week ago. Much recession talk and tariff impact fear is still on, yet I‘d pay close attention to bond market and credit spreads – do these confirm the stock market advance and risk-on optimism?

In the weekend video, I discuss various ratios whether stock market ones or real asset ones, the earlier call for USD to stabilize and return above 100 together with diverging Bitcoin and gold paths. Pay special attention to the message oil is sending (talked there too).

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