S&P 500 not only refused to rally but crashed on high volume driven by the banking sector (news and regional banks). Even some tech names ripe for a downswing joined – not only that 3,958 was broken, but so was the next 3,910 key support.

Seeing the overnight action made me a bit cautious, but from a swing trading point of view, it had been worth waiting for the probably hot NFPs figure (regardless of the Challenger ones showing progressing weakness) – even if the initial reaction to a strong figure had gone in the opposite direction, I expect the sellers to come and battle it out today still. Worse risk – especially given the bearish factor of ever-shrinking liquidity (M2 money supply) – is what happens regarding any SVIB bailout rumor mill. Medium-term, the table is set, and Powell has been clear on the inflation fight, and such a guessing game as we‘re witnessing today, really needn‘t have played out this much.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

3,915 is the „point of control“ switching the daily outlook back towards the bears as regards momentum. The 3,945 – 3,958 zone must hold, and the latest moves are highly encouraging for the bears today already.
 

Credit Markets

The risk-off turn in credit markets should continue, and that‘s most essential for stock market bears even as TLT is predictably treading water for now.

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