Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 22, 2025.

10-year note: Currently net short 906.1k, down 31.6k.

A dramatic confrontation between the White House and the Federal Reserve has been put off – for now. President Donald Trump nominated Chair Jerome Powell in 2017 and has since been at loggerheads with the latter on several occasions. In recent weeks, Trump has ramped up his rhetoric against Powell, urging him to lower interest rates and saying his “termination cannot come soon enough.”

Powell was sworn in for a second four-year term in May 2022. In the past, he has said it is not permitted under the law to fire or demote him and that he does not intend to quit before his term ends. If Trump did try to fire him, Powell would probably see him in court. Nevertheless, Trump’s economic adviser Kevin Hassett said last Friday that they were studying the possibility of firing Powell. This obviously impacted the markets – adversely, of course.

Then came the U-turn. Come Tuesday, Trump said he has “no intention” of firing Powell before his term ends. His advisors probably urged him to tone down his attacks on the independent central bank, and he listened. Markets have responded positively. So far so good.

Cooler heads have prevailed. But there is no guarantee the issue would not raise its head again. As the economy begins to decelerate and inflation remains sticky, forcing the Fed to remain on the sidelines, odds favor Trump trying to jawbone Powell into cutting the fed funds rate. A genuine confrontation between the two can cause panic in the markets.

30-year bond: Currently net short 107.7k, up 6.9k.

Major US economic releases for next week are as follows.

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index (February) and JOLTs job openings (March) will be published Tuesday.

In January, home prices nationally increased 4.1 percent year-over-year. This was the fastest pace of appreciation in five months.

Non-farm job openings in February dropped 194,000 month-over-month to 7.6 million. Openings peaked at 12.1 million in March 2022.

Wednesday, GDP (1Q25, first print) and the employment cost index (1Q25) are on tap.

Real GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in 4Q24. This represents 11 quarters of uninterrupted expansion.

In the December quarter, private-industry total compensation grew 3.6 percent from a year ago. This was the slowest pace of growth in 14 quarters.

The ISM manufacturing index (April) is scheduled for Thursday. Manufacturing activity shrank 1.3 percentage points m/m in March to 49 percent – a four-month low. March followed two consecutive months of expansion, which was preceded by 26 months of contraction.

Friday brings payrolls (April) and durable goods orders (March, revised). 

The economy added 228,000 non-farm jobs in March, for a monthly average this year of 152,000 – slower than last year’s monthly average of 168,000 and 216,000 before that.

March orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capex plans – edged up 0.1 percent m/m to $75.1 billion (SAAR). A record $75.3 billion was posted in January.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 214.4k, up 46.6k.

Three weeks ago, following a definitive breach of horizontal support at $65-$66 in the week before, West Texas Intermediate crude tagged $56.06 intraday on the 9^th this month before reversing sharply higher by close. Horizontal support at $55 goes back a couple of decades. If this was breached, the next layer of support lies at low-$50s, and then low-$40s.

Since that low on the 9^th, WTI has gone sideways, with oil bulls rallying the crude as high as $64.86 on the 17^th. Since then, $65-$66 has not been tested in earnest. This week, the crude gave back 2.3 percent to $63.17/barrel, while forming a spinning top on the weekly.

WTI can rally on the weekly – at least toward $65-$66; a sharply falling 50-day moving average lies at $66.87. For a rally to occur, oil bulls need to defend $60.50s.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to April 18^th decreased 2,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.460 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6^th last year. Crude imports dropped as well, down 412,000 b/d to 5.6 mb/d. As did stocks of gasoline and distillates – down 4.5 million barrels and 2.4 million barrels respectively to 229.5 million barrels and 106.9 million barrels. Crude inventory, however, rose 244,000 barrels to 443.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased 1.8 percentage points to 88.1 percent.

E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 75.9k, up 12.8k.

Equity bulls rallied the S&P 500 4.6 percent this week to 5525. This was the second up week in three. Two weeks ago, the large cap index finished up 5.7 percent, right after plunging 9.1 percent in the prior week. From the all-time high of 6147 posted on February 19^th through the April 7^th low of 4835, the index quickly sank 21.3 percent.

On the way down, horizontal support at 5500 was compromised on the 3^rd this month, proceeding to bottom at 4835 two sessions later. This Friday, the index successfully pushed past 5500, albeit slightly.

More gains are possible in the sessions ahead. The 50- and 200-day rest at 5636 and 5747, in that order.

Euro: Currently net long 65k, down 4.3k.

The euro has broken out of a falling trendline from July 2008 when it peaked at $1.604. On the back of that, it rallied as high as $1.1573 on Monday, although bulls failed to hang on to it, finishing down 0.3 percent for the week to $1.1364. This was the first down week in five.

Last September, on the 30^th, the currency reversed lower after facing rejection at $1.12 for six consecutive weeks. It stabilized early this year around $1.02s, which was defended for a whole month.

The weekly is extended. A breakout retest at $1.12 is the path of least resistance.

Gold: Currently net long 175.4k, down 26.8k.

Gold left a long upper wick on the weekly this week. Posting a fresh new intraday high of $3,500 on Tuesday, the metal ended the week lower 0.2 percent to $3,320/ounce. This was the third down week in the last 17. The metal bottomed December 30^th last year when it ticked $2,608.

Even as gold persisted higher, non-commercials have been actively reducing their net longs since early February when they were net long 302,508 contracts in the week to February 4^th. This week, their holdings stood at 175,378 contracts – the lowest since February last year.

As extended as the yellow metal is, there is plenty of support should it come under downward pressure. Immediately ahead, gold bugs can show up at $3,250s and then $3,160s.

Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 37.7k, up 5.9k.

From the February 19^th all-time high of 22223 through the April 7^th low of 16542, the Nasdaq 100 tanked 25.6 percent. Since that intraday low, it has had two solid weeks, up 6.4 percent this week and 7.4 percent two weeks prior. This week, it closed at 19433.

Next week, Microsoft (MSFT) and Facebook owner Meta Platforms (META) report their March-quarter results on Wednesday and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday. Thus far, results from TSLA and GOOG have drawn positive reaction.

If the weekly were to prevail, there is more room for strength. There is solid resistance at 20500s. Before that, the 50-day lies at 19732 and the 200-day at 20194.

Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 6.7k, up 7.4k.

Small-cap bulls rallied the Russell 2000 4.1 percent this week to 1958. This likely raises the odds that it is headed toward 2000 – at least.

For nearly two years through December 2023 the small cap index was rangebound between 1700 and 1900 before breaking out. It then went on to post a new all-time high of 2466 on November 25^th last year, edging past the prior high of 2459 from November 2021. The index then went on to lose 29.7 percent through the April 9^th low this year of 1733. The 1700 support has held, and the subsequent rally has helped the Russell 2000 recapture 1900.

Bulls would love to go test 2000, which was breached early this month.

US Dollar Index: Currently net short 974, up 2.8k.

The US dollar index peaked on January 13^th at a two-plus-year intraday high of 110.18. This Monday, it tagged 97.92 intraday; bids showed up in the remaining sessions to edge it up 0.1 percent for the week to 99.47.

As things stand, the US dollar index is in oversold territory. There is multi-year horizontal support/resistance just north of 100, which if reclaimed will help dollar bulls launch a rally attempt. In a best-case scenario, there is decent lateral resistance at 103.20s, which was breached early this month.

VIX: Currently net short 5.7k, down 11.6k.

VIX has gone from 60.13 on the 7^th this month to Friday’s close of 24.84. Odds favor the volatility index comes under more pressure in the sessions ahead. This will be the case should the 50-day (24.97) decisively gets breached early next week. In this scenario, the 200-day lies at 19.27. Right underneath rests a rising trendline from early December last year when VIX bottomed at 12.70.

Thanks for reading!

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