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US Stock Market:

• Dow and S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures lose 0.2% as investors await the Fed decision.
• Microsoft drops nearly 4% after slower cloud revenue growth, while Alphabet surges 6% on strong results driven by cloud growth.
• Snap, Texas Instruments, and Robert Half tumble on disappointing updates, while Wells Fargo, Intuitive Machines, and Teladoc gain on upbeat earnings.

US Dollar and Central Bank Decisions:

• The dollar index steadies above 101 mark before Fed’s interest rate decision.
• Fed widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points; uncertainty remains on further tightening.
• US consumer confidence reaches two-year high in July, supported by a strong labor market and easing inflation.
• European Central Bank set to raise borrowing costs, Bank of Japan to maintain ultra-loose policy.

US Treasury Yields:

• US 10-year Treasury note yield tops 3.9%, the highest in two weeks, ahead of the FOMC decision.
• 25bps increase in fed funds rate already priced in, focus on Fed’s next steps.
• Traders divided on the need for further rate hikes; bets for September increase at about 19% and November around 30%.
• US two-year note yield at two-week highs of 4.87%, sensitive to short-term policy moves.
   

E-mini S&P 500 Technical Perspective

2 Weeks Ago

The daily interval displays a balanced price range, with traders relying on the extremes to assess rotational scenarios. The lower dollar in the session might provide support, but the positive volatility could act as a pressure factor for the market. In the prior session, the market closed with a double distribution structure, and sellers were leaning on the POC level.

However, absorption may come into play around the current swing lows, potentially leading the market back to the swing highs, depending on the wide swings, as investors await the effects of the central bank decision. A hike of 25 bps might act as a selling factor.

Looking at the volume profile prints we can gain a insights into higher volume POC prints which might serve as selling or buying level.

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