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US Stocks:

• Dow Jones rises 80 points for a 10th consecutive session of gains, S&P 500 gains 0.4%, and Nasdaq rises 0.6% with tech sector rebounding.
• Traders digest corporate results and brace for the upcoming FOMC monetary policy decision.

Corporate News:

• American Express shares decline 3.7% as revenue misses expectations, while earnings surprise on the upside.
• Tesla rebounds with a 1% gain after a 9.7% plunge, while Netflix remains stable after an 8.4% loss.

Currency and Monetary Policy:

• Dollar index steadies above 100 mark, set to gain nearly 1% this week, as investors assess US data for the Fed outlook.
• Weekly jobless claims in the US fall to a two-month low, solidifying expectations of a 25 basis points rate hike next week.
• Traders scale back bets of further tightening after July, pricing possible rate cuts next year amid easing US inflation.

Global Central Bank Decisions:

• Investors await interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan next week.
• Sterling weakens as softer-than-expected UK inflation lowers expectations of further Bank of England rate hikes.

US Treasury Yields:

• Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note around 3.85%, as traders analyze labor market strength and prepare for Fed’s decision.
• A 25bps hike in fed funds rate fully priced in, while further increases remain uncertain.
• Economic data shows initial claims unexpectedly fell to a two-month low, but retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and building permits disappoint.

Technical Market Update On E-mini S&P 500

The market is currently trading up by approximately 0.1%, having closed the prior session with a double distribution volume profile. Selling activity was observed around the upper distribution’s POC level. The current market shows a balanced trading behavior, with sellers targeting the swing lows and buyers aiming to maintain price rotational, leaning on the lower value extreme of the developing VWAP.

The higher dollar for the week is exerting pressure on equities and commodities, while the long-term view supports the current imbalanced market to the upside. Despite some slight signs of balance in the median-term perspective, the negative volatility for the session appears to be beneficial for the buying side of the market. The long-term view seems bullish, with a slight indication of balance in the median-term perspective.

Although the market exhibits extreme imbalance to the upside on the daily interval, there are still signs of potential weakening, indicating a possible upcoming selling rotation, contingent on further economic data and the path of monetary policy. The impending rate hike continues to be a pressure factor, and any surprise actions from the central bank could lead to higher volatility.

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