Image Source: Pixabay

The past few years have seen interest rates soar. But perhaps it’s a case of too far, too fast.

Today we look at interest rates in the form of treasury bond yields. And more specifically, the 30-year treasury bond yield.

As you can see, the 30-year bond yield has been in a downtrend since peaking in the early 1980’s. But the recent rally may have ended that.

Needless to say, yields have either burned too hot or too cold a few times over this stretch of time. So how do we measure this?

Well, when yields have been a great distance above or below the 200-week moving average, long-term inflection points come into play.

First, it was the early 80’s when yields got 60% above its 200-day MA. Then, it was the COVID meltdown at (1) when yields fell sharply to 60% below the MA. And now yields have popped 60% above the MA at (2).

And, once again, yields are beginning to fall. Is it time for yields (interest rates) to come back down to earth?

(Click on image to enlarge)

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