Based on the relative ratios of the first gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) launched in 2004, VanEck’s analysts predicted spot Bitcoin ETF to witness over $40 billion in inflows over the first two years of trading. Further, the asset manager also forecasted BTC to hit a new all-time high (ATH) in Q4 2024.

Spot Bitcoin ETF to See $1B in Inflows Within First Few Days

ETF and mutual fund manager VanEck estimated that the upcoming spot Bitcoin ETF if approved, will see around $1 billion in inflows in the first few days after the launch and around $2.4 billion within a quarter. Over the first two years of trading, the spot BTC ETF is expected to attract around $40.4 billion in inflows, the asset manager wrote in its new “15 Crypto Predictions for 2024” report.

VanEck’s calculations about potential inflows into spot Bitcoin ETF are based on the relative ratios of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF, adjusted to 2023 dollar value. After its launch in November 2004, the GLD ETF witnessed inflows of about $1 billion within the first couple of days. VanEck pointed out that that figure increased to $2.26 billion by the end of Q1 2005. 

As the spot Bitcoin ETF reaches a more mature state, it could potentially represent about 1.7% of the total BTC spot market, equivalent to the portion of gold’s total supply held in gold ETFs, the asset management firm noted in its report. At first, this could amount to around $12.5 billion. 

Bitcoin to Reach New ATH Amid Presidential Elections Impact, Van Eck Says

In its extensive report, VanEck made several other bold Bitcoin-related predictions.

Most notably, the fund manager expects the flagship cryptocurrency to reach a new all-time high in Q4 2024. It will do so by climbing the “Presidential-sized wall of worry,” referring to the upcoming presidential elections in the US. 

The prediction is based on VanEck’s expectations that elections could lead to increased volatility and the potential for significant changes. The firm noted growing evidence that voters and courts are pushing back against the anti-growth stance promoted by the Green lobby and the shifting regulatory sentiment toward crypto. 

As such, VanEck believes “the Bitcoin price will reach an all-time high on November 9th, exactly 3 years to the day from its last all-time high.”

Other noteworthy prognostications in VanEck’s report include that Ethereum will fail to flip Bitcoin in value, as some expect it to, and the low likelihood that BTC’s price will drop below $30,000 in Q1 2024, despite expected volatility. The leading crypto asset surged over 22% over the past month, driven by growing convictions that a spot ETF will soon be approved by US regulators.

Which of VanEck’s predictions is most likely to come to fruition, in your opinion? Let us know in the comments below. 

More By This Author: