BTC Under Pressure

Bitcoin prices are looking weaker on Monday following heavy selling on Friday as traders digested the latest US labour market data. A strong upside surprise in the NFP saw traders dialling back their September easing expectations, sending USD surging higher. As a result of the shift in USD, we’ve seen risk assets coming under heavy selling pressure with BTC futures shedding around 5% from last week’s highs.  Looking ahead this week there is plenty of bearish risk given the US CPI report due on Wednesday and the FOMC meeting later that day also.

Risks & Expectations for Wednesday

In terms of the likely market impact of Wednesday’s data and Fed decision, the implications are clear. If we see inflation coming in or above forecasts, this is likely to see USD bid into the FOMC, leading BTC lower. We’re then likely to hear a more reserved (hawkish) message from the Fed, further dampening September easing expectations and driving a deeper sell off in risk assets. However, there are upside risks also. If we see a surprise drop in CPI on Wednesday, this should see USD trading firmly lower, creating room for a bullish move in BTC. The Fed is likely to sound more open to near-term easing which should drive the move further.

Technical Views

BTC

The sell off in BTC has seen the market retesting the broken bull channel and the 69,355 level. For now, this area is holding as support and while price holds above, focus is on a continuation higher and a fresh test of the 74,325 level. To the downside, 66,625 and 64,540 will be the next support levels to monitor. 

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