Crude Rebounding

Crude prices are trading up off the weekly lows ahead of the all-important NFP release later today. Crude futures have recovered more than 4% following heavy selling at the start of the week. Weaker US data throughout the week has seen traders rebuilding their near-term fed rate-cut expectations, weighing on USD and allowing crude prices to bounce.

US Jobs On Watch

Looking ahead today, if we see any fresh weakness across the data (NFP, unemployment rate, average wages) this should put further pressure on USD and allow crude prices to recover higher into next week. On the other hand, if we see any upside surprise data this will likely fuel some recovery action in USD, weighing on oil prices.

OPEC+ News

Crude prices had been under pressure at the start of the week in response to news that OPEC+ plans to reintroduce some oil supply later in the year. However, rate cuts from the BOC and ECB through the middle of the week helped lift sentiment. Traders now expect the Fed will follow in September and any incoming data supporting this view is likely to see USD trading lower, creating fresh demand for oil prices.

Technical Views

Crude Futures (CL)

The sell off in crude has stalled for now into a test of the 72.61 level with price bouncing higher. The market is now testing the bear channel highs with the key 77.64 resistance level sitting just above. If bulls can get back above here this should alleviate near-term downside risks, putting focus on 82.59 next. 

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