Bitcoin Bites Back

After some time out of the limelight, Bitcoin has been grabbing attention again recently with some mouth-watering volatility. The leading cryptocurrency has seen impressive gains over 2023, encouraging bulls that we might see a return to the sort of upside we saw in late 2020/early 2021. There are a number of factors supporting BTC currently, chief among those is excitement over anticipated SEC Bitcoin ETF approvals. With 12 applications pending, including big names like BlackRock and Fidelity, bulls hope that the first approvals will drive a wave of demand through BTC, sending the asset higher.

SEC Approvals

The SEC is currently 2 days into an 8-day approval window (the first tranche of time during which it might approve an application ahead of the coming January deadline). The broad expectations here is that Bitcoin ETFs will open the market up to a rich new layer of institutional demand, hopefully acting as a catalyst for the next bull phase in BTC.

April Halving Event

Looking further ahead, the upcoming April 2024 halving event is also attracting attention. With prior halving events seen leading to a period of outperformance in the asset, the April event is seen as another strong reason for long term purchases in Bitcoin.

Downside Risks

Clearly, given the level of built-up expectation in the market and the strong bullish sentiment, if we see the SEC deny these applications or post-pone them, this would fuel a heavy short squeeze in BTC.

Technical Views

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BTC

The rally in Bitcoin has seen the market trading up to test the bull channel top and the 37030 resistance level. This area is holding for now and with momentum studies weakening, risks of a pullback are growing. However, while 32185 holds as support, the focus remains on further upside with 39860 the next resistance to note. 

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