China/US Demand Fears

Crude prices have come under heavy selling pressure this week with crude futures dropping to their lowest level in over three months yesterday. The sell-off comes amidst an uptick in concerns over the demand outlook in the US and China. Last week’s set of weaker-than-forecast US jobs data has raised fears that the US economy might be on the verge of a slowdown. With rates at elevated levels and inflation still raised, traders are wary of a dip in activity through year end, leading to lower oil demand.

China Falls Back into Disinflation

In China, data has been trending lower again recently with manufacturing data and export figures dropping. This week, the latest inflation data showed that China fell back into disinflationary territory last month, putting further downward pressure on oil prices. While the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has clear upside risks for crude, for now the conflict has been contained in Gaza and with traders sensing a reduced likelihood of a broader Middle East war developing, for now crude looks likely to remain pressured.

API Reports Huge Surplus

The API this week reported a 12-million-barrel surplus in crude inventories. This marks the largest surplus since February which, if confirmed by the EIA, should put further bearish pressure on crude. The weekly EIA update will be delayed until next week, however, while it carries out a systems upgrade. As such, crude is likely to stay lower through the end of the week.

Technical Views

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Crude

The sell off in crude has seen the market breaking down through several key support levels recently. The break below the 77.64 level this week put focus on a test of 72.61 next, in line with bearish momentum studies. Bulls will need to see a break back above 82.59 near-term to take the focus off further downside. 

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