Pat Higgins’ Atlanta FedGDPNow model forecast is 5.4 percent with a final update in Wednesday. The Bloomberg Econoday forecast is 4.1 percent.

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GDPNow Estimate

The latest GDPNow Forecast is from October 18. A final forecast for the third quarter is on October 25.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 5.5 percent to 4.8 percent.

Bloomberg Econoday Forecast

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus is 4.1 percent in very wide range of 2.8 percent to 6.0 percent.

Gross Domestic Income (GDI)

I have been watching GDI because it is on a completely different track even though GDP and GDI are two measures of the same thing.

There will not be a GDI release with the first (advance estimate of GDP), but the Philadelphia Fed will update its GDPplus measure on Thursday as well.

GDPPlus had been signaling recession or near-recession although GDP isn’t close.

For discussion, please see GDPplus Big Positive Revisions Decrease Likelihood a Recession Happened

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