So much is imported that industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” but it remains an important if diminished economic indicator. It has been trending generally sideways this year, and that trend continued in August.

Headline industrial production (blue in the graph below) rose 0.1%% in August, but after revisions to prior months, the net was a decline of -0.1% compared with the initial reading last month for July. Manufacturing production (red) increased 0.3%, but after revisions was up 0.2% compared with the initial reading for July:
 

Total production has not exceeded its post-pandemic high in June, but with its increase this month manufacturing production is now the highest since early 2019.

Updating my graph from yesterday, mixing production (gold, left scale) increased 1.1% for the month, but remains below its June peak, while utility production (yellow, narrow, right scale) declined -0.8%:
 

The overall trend in the past six months remains flat to slightly increasing, after strong increases in 2024 into the beginning of this year.

Nevertheless, my conclusion this month remains the similar as it was last month, when I wrote: “Along with retail sales, this is the second coincident positive for the economy this morning.”  Because after revisions total industrial production declined -0.1% this month vs. July, they are neutral vs. positive, but the net of both is that, unless and until consumers pull back, there is no recession.

More By This Author:

Employment Growth Is Dead In The Water
August Real Average Wages And Nonsupervisory Payrolls
Consumer Inflation Shows More Signs Of Re-Acceleration