The hour is getting late, as Bob Dylan told us while businessmen drank his wine and plowmen dug his earth, but never too late, dear reader, for our annual outlook.

Our back-of-the envelope estimate for real fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth is an annual rate of 3.3%, higher than the consensus of 3.0%.  The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now calculation pegs growth at 3.4%, citing better-than-expected December retail sales.  In any event, it’s safe to say growth was between 3-4%, sustaining the 3%-plus rates of the second and third quarters.  The rest of the world is doing well, too.  But just as the U.S. was the engine that pulled the global economy into expansion, it’ll be the millstone that drags it down, too, we think.

We must, however, note first of all that, being stable geniuses, we reserve the right to alternative facts, should we prove wrong.

• Trumpism will fade like an old man sitting on a sofa contemplating raking the leaves; it’s simply too much to ask and still think about stuff like porn star hookups and infrastructure.

• Recession will loom as the yield curve flattens and inverts.  The Fed will tighten too much and investors will flee to T-notes as scary stuff happens

• What scary stuff?  We’re geniuses, not soothsayers, but the potential list includes North Korea, terrorism, Donald Trump off the rails and the New England Patriots supplying their own refs for the Super Bowl.

• With U.S. stock market capitalization already at 150% of GDP, a sell-off is inevitable after the Fed puts the screws to the economy and, well, screws it up.  Wait for the crash, then buy Amazon.

• We famously predicted a Trump victory (see here), and now we predict Democrats will retake control of one of the houses of Congress, ensuring an even less perfect union and all the blessings of deadlock.

• Tiger Woods will play creditably in his comeback but fail to win a single tournament.  The field is too good.  Sell Nike (and Under Armour; Jordan Spieth won’t win either).

• Despite Oklahoma’s freshman sensation Trae Young, Kansas will win yet another conference title and make it to a final four that includes Duke, Villanova and a commuter school whose players are inspiring inner-city stories that Jim Nance will pretend to care about.

• The new Yankee manager Aaron Boone will start a trend by going to his mighty bullpen by the third inning.  Since more pitchers will be needed on rosters, this will spark a desperate search for pitcher/hitters like the Japanese fellow the Angels hired. This will expand the definition of “Ruthian.”

• The Eastern Seaboard will gain population at the expense of catastroph-prone California, driving already steep housing costs beyond the means of all indigenous tribes of teachers, firemen and police.  Sh*thole countries will be designated to provide replacements. Indeed, lawyers specializing in procuring sh*thole status for immigrants will flood late night TV abroad.

• Happiest and healthiest of new years to all!