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The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change is above CES cumulative change, while the preliminary benchmark is below.

The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.2mn through August, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current official CES series through July.

In contrast, the preliminary benchmark indicates 819 thousand less in March 2024 than the current official series. Assuming the increases in private NFP since March 2024, the increase in employment is 2.0mn (not 2.8 mn through July).

Figure 1: Cumulative increase in private NFP since March 2023 according to CES (blue), according to ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab (tan), according to preliminary benchmark (red square), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.

The ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series is not based on a survey, but actual check-cutting operations. The Preliminary Benchmark relies upon QCEW (unemployment insurance). While the QCEW is a census, that census data gets updated. In addition, some employment will not be captured in the census, since some employment is not reported by firms to the tax authorities. Hence, Goldman Sachs thinks the effective downward revision is about 300K, instead of 818K, for the total NFP (no separate figure reported by GS for private NFP).

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